⚾ Yankees vs. Royals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, May 25

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals are coming off wins on Sunday and each looks to carry the momentum into today’s Memorial Day series opener. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is set for 3:40 p.m. ET (ESPN), with Will Warren opposing Michael Wacha on the rubber. The Yankees are -160 betting favorites.

My Yankees vs. Royals prediction backs Michael Wacha to lead the home underdogs to a victory, while neutralizing New York’s top hitter. That also has me backing a left-handed Kansas City slugger to go deep to round out my MLB picks.

⚾ Yankees vs. Royals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.68 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Royals?

The Royals lost nine of 10 games prior to coming back for a series win against the Mariners, and I expect them to use that momentum in this home opener while New York had to travel yesterday.

Score prediction: Royals 4, Yankees 3

💰 Yankees vs. Royals prediction & best bet

Royals ML (+130)

The Yankees have dominated losing teams this season, going 22-13 against teams under .500. But Michael Wacha has had great career success against current Yankees hitters, tipping the scale in Kansas City’s favor.

Wacha has held current Yankees hitters to a combined .151/.252/.257 slash line in 119 at-bats, while recording 41 strikeouts. He is red-hot having recorded four consecutive quality starts, while pitching to a 2.08 ERA and a 22:6 K:BB ratio.

I’m also selling high on Will Warren after he won five of his last six starts, given his 42nd percentile hard-hit rate.

Looking for more plays? Our Dustin Saracini features this game as part of his best NRFI bets today.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Royals player prop bet

Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases (+100)

Aaron Judge can breathe a sigh of relief after breaking a four-game hitless streak with a 2-for-4 day and a walk-off two-run home run yesterday. But I’m not ignoring his 11-game homerless and career-long RBI drought prior to Sunday, especially when facing a starting pitcher that's had his number.

Against Wacha, Judge is 4-for-23 and 12 of his 19 outs coming via strikeout. 

In a recent nine-game stretch where Judge went 4-for-35, his .348 OPS in those 40 plate appearances was the worst of his career over a 40-plate appearance stretch.

Wacha’s .407 xSLG is on pace to be his best in a season since 2017, while his overall .232 xBA is the best of his career. I expect him to deal Judge a heavy dose of changeups (he has thrown the pitch 23.5% of the time), as opposing batters have a .286 xSLG off of it.

💣 Yankees vs. Royals home run prediction

Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a home run (+550)

Will Warren has allowed five of his six home runs this season to left-handed batters, which had me rule out Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez to go deep.

Warren’s slugging percentage against lefties is 108 points higher than what he has allowed to right-handed batters. Meanwhile, Vinnie Pasquantino’s launch angle sweet spot percentage is on pace to increase for the third consecutive season, even though his current xSLG and xOBA is the lowest of his five-year career.

Pasquantino hasn’t homered in 14 straight games. But one of his two hits in the first series against the Yankees left the yard, and he is a great value play to make the Yankees his first opponent he hit multiple homers off of this season.

🚀 Yankees vs. Royals same-game parlay

While backing Vinnie Pasquantino to homer would help the Royals case of winning outright, I am swapping that play for a more realistic wager that helps the chances of this same-game parlay cashing. If Kansas City does end New York's winning streak in this rivalry, it will likely do so in a pitcher's duel, given the Yankees' brilliant run of solid starting pitching lately.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Royals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Given that I am adding a play on the Under as my second leg of my SGP, I would not put anyone off backing the total as their top game prediction if they didn't like Kansas City's chances of winning. After all, New York's last four starting pitchers have combined to allow three earned runs over 23 innings, but the team is just 1-3 over that span.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Royals odds

The line has steamed in New York's favor overnight after not much movement during the day yesterday. It is likely the result of sharp action since the betting splits are slightly less than 2/1 in favor of the Yankees, but the line has moved more than 10 cents at most top sports betting sites (from -143 to -157 at DraftKings is one example).

DraftKings was the only one of our best sports betting sites to lower its total at any point, briefly dipping from an O/U of 9 to 8.5. But despite 62% of the wagers being on the Under, that 8.5 didn't last long, so Over backers may have missed their small window for getting a more favorable number.

📈 Yankees vs. Royals betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Royals injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Royals

• Date: Monday, May 25
• First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+
• Yankees starter: Will Warren (6-1, 3.61 ERA)
• Royals starter: Michael Wacha (4-2, 2.70 ERA)