🏀 Aces vs. Wings Prediction: WNBA Picks for Thursday, May 28
Coming off a week-long road trip, the Dallas Wings (4-3) are back home against the defending champion Las Vegas (4-2) at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday at College Park Center in Arlington, Texas, on Prime Video.
This is a bit of a litmus test for the Wings, who are 4.5-point underdogs against one of the top WNBA championship odds contenders. But my Aces vs. Wings prediction sees it as more of a learning moment for a young Dallas team that has yet to figure out the right rotation pattern.
🏀 Aces vs. Wings prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces -4 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | The Aces have a WNBA-best +19.4 net rating in road games this year. |
| Aces -1.5 first-half spread (-115 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.87u | Dallas has yet to figure out its optimal starting lineup, which is why Las Vegas should start in front. |
| NaLyssa Smith Over 8.5 points (-106 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.94u | The Aces forward is averaging 11.3 points per game entering a favorable matchup. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.72 units
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🏆 Who will win Aces vs. Wings?
In a matchup between two of the more exciting teams in the league, I project the Aces to win by six points during Thursday's track meet. Las Vegas is 4-0 on the road this year, so it will be prepared for the crowd in Arlington.
Score prediction: Aces 92, Wings 86
🤑 More WNBA predictions for Thursday
Looking for more picks tonight? Dive into my Fever vs. Valkyries prediction for Thursday.
💰 Aces vs. Wings prediction & best bet
Aces -1.5 first-half spread (-115)
Dallas head coach Jose Fernandez opted to make a lineup change in the second half of Sunday's win against the New York Liberty. He played Azzi Fudd and Awak Kuier over Odyssey Sims and Alanna Smith. But his postgame comments didn't suggest that was a permanent move.
Until Fernandez makes that switch (probably after a loss), I'll bet against his starting lineup. The Wings have a -14.4 net rating in 82 minutes with Smith and Sims on the floor.
Caesars offers the best odds on the Wings' first-half spread at -115.
🔥 Best Aces vs. Wings player prop bet
NaLyssa Smith Over 8.5 points (-106)
Thanks to Smith being unplayable after winning Co-Defensive Player of the Year last season, the Wings don't have much of an interior defense. They rank 14th out of 15 teams in points allowed in the paint.
Las Vegas center A'ja Wilson could have a field day, which is why her scoring line (25.5) is the highest it has been all season. I'd rather take the better value on her frontcourt partner. NaLyssa Smith is averaging 11.3 points per game this season, clearing this line in four of her six matchups. She's coming off a 22-point performance against the Sparks.
I like this Over at 9.5 or better, especially since that's what this prop has been set at in recent games.
🚀 Aces vs. Wings same-game parlay
FanDuel only offers +308 odds on a parlay of my Aces vs. Wings prediction, but it follows a game script worth counting on tonight. Las Vegas should start in front and stay there in a potential track meet.
💵 Aces vs. Wings SGP picks
- Aces -4.5 (-110)
- Aces 1H spread -1.5 (-118)
- NaLyssa Smith Over 8.5 points (-108)
Best odds: +308 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 0.3u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-14 | +3.16 units ✅ | 15.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-2 | +3.3 units ✅ | 39.8% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-6 | -0.32 units ❌ | -45.7% ❌ |
📊 Live Aces vs. Wings odds
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Wings
- Date: Thursday, May 18
- Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: College Park Center (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: N/A
- Streaming: Prime Video
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