⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, May 28
Even though only 12 teams are in action amid Thursday’s six-game MLB slate, five of the top 10 home run leaders take the field looking to improve upon their impressive power numbers. But my home run predictions today fade those top names in favor of more value with sluggers like Jo Adell.
The rest of my MLB home run picks strike a balance with power hitters who have an extensive sample size of at-bats against today’s opposing pitcher (Pete Alonso), and those who look to break through for their first career hits against the starter they’re facing, like Atlanta’s Michael Harris II.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 28
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell to hit a home run (+450 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.13u | Adell quietly entered yesterday in the top 50 of home run hitters |
| Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+800 via bet365) | 0.25u → 2u | Harris II has been carrying MLB's best offense of late |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Alonso's success against Patrick Corbin amid a 52 at-bat sample size is too great to ignore |
| Spencer Horwitz to hit a home run (+870 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 2.18u | Colin Rea has an ERA nearly four runs higher on the road than at home |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 6.25 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Jo Adell to hit a home run (+450)
Jack Flaherty is still in search of his first win while pitching to a poor 5.94 ERA. While he started the season with just one home run allowed over his first 23 1/3 innings spanning five starts, he has allowed multiple home runs in a start twice since, including three in his last two outings.
Flaherty ranks in the 13th percentile or worse in ground ball rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He has allowed an xSLG of .418 or worse on his three primary pitches, which should give Adell plenty of opportunities to go deep.
📡 SBR Edge: L.A.'s offensive surge
During the Angels' recent season-long four-game winning streak, they ranked third in wRC+ and slugging, and were one of five teams to hit eight home runs in that span (they did it in one fewer game than three other teams on the list).
🔥 More home run picks today
Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+800)
Atlanta’s offense entered this series against Boston leading the league in batting average and ranking second in OPS and home runs. And since April 7, the team ripped off a 30-13 record while scoring 231 runs and slugging .436 as a team. But with Ozzie Albies amid a power drought and Matt Olson only homering once in the last 15 days, Michael Harris II has done much of the heavy lifting.
Harris has belted three home runs in the last week, including his eighth career two-home run game, which was also his third straight multi-hit game. He gets a tasty matchup with Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle, who has allowed a .412 slugging percentage to left-handed batters and a .221 slugging percentage to righties.
Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+375)
No hitter playing today comes close to the sample size of at-bats that Pete Alonso has against Patrick Corbin. Alonso has a .365/.460/.712 slash line in 52 at-bats against the southpaw, with five of his 19 hits leaving the yard. Overall, his eight extra-base hits in the head-to-head matchups and 12:10 K:BB ratio suggests Alonso should be in store for more success.
Alonso is slugging .540 with seven home runs over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Corbin has allowed the two highest pull air percentages of his career over the last two seasons, and that plays well for right-handed batters given Camden Yards’ dimensions.
Spencer Horwitz to hit a home run (+870)
Spencer Horwitz is getting hot, with five hits in the last three games and home runs in two of the last four. He is a big reason why the Pirates through 50 games had averaged 2.1 more runs, belted 19 more home runs, and had a team OPS 109 points higher than they had through the 50-game mark last season.
Horwitz looks to go deep off of Colin Rea, who has pitched to a 6.75 ERA and .279 OBA on the road. Rea has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts, and is on pace to allow his worst hard-hit rate. That includes a hard-hit rate of more than 50% on two of his top three primary pitches.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
While Spencer Horwitz is 3-for-9 in his career off Rea, Pete Alonso is the only slugger from this same-game parlay who has any extensive success off today's opposing pitcher, especially when it comes to hitting home runs. But instead of backing Munetaka Murakami, Byron Buxton, or Christian Walker who all rank in the top 10 in home runs and are in action today, I am getting much more value out of the majority of these plays.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Jo Adell to hit a home run (+450)
- Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+800)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+375)
- Spencer Horwitz to hit a home run (+850)
Best odds: +223269 via bet365 (0.01u -> 22.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 107-162-1 | +27.95 units ✅ | +16.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 71-138 | +18.78 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wanted to wager on Munetaka Murakami to hit a home run, as yesterday he set a record for the most home runs hit before June by a player in their rookie season (20). But the unknown of who was pitching for Minnesota forced me off that pick, and I already have another wager on a top-2 home run slugger teed up with Yordan Alvarez in my Astros vs. Rangers prediction column. That is why I'm looking for value as my top priority with most of these plays, while still backing sluggers like Alonso and Harris II who have been hot at the dish.
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