⚽ Argentina World Cup 2026 Odds & Predictions: Can The Holders Repeat? Is Messi Injured?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, beating France on penalties in one of the most exciting finals of all time; can they repeat at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Right now, one of the biggest questions surrounding the club is the actual status of Messi.
If the superstar's "muscular fatigue" is something more nefarious, will that impact the Argentina World Cup odds? Even if he's full-go, can a 38-year-old actually lead his country to victory again? Can the dangerous youth of the squad make a push either way and pay off their +900 odds?
📊 Argentina World Cup odds 2026
The best World Cup betting sites will offer plenty of markets, but here are some of the best from DraftKings; odds updated May 26 and subject to change:
| Market | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win outright (Champion) | +900 | 10% | $90 |
| To reach final | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| To reach semi final | +190 | 34.48% | $19 |
| To reach quarter final | +100 | 50% | $10 |
| To reach last 16 | -250 | 71.43% | $4 |
Stage of elimination
In a similar vein you can bet where a team will be eliminated as opposed to how far they'll advance in the tournament.
| Stage of elimination | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
| Last 16 | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Group Stage | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Quarter-finals | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Semi-finals | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Runner-up | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| Outright Winner | +900 | 10% | $90 |
🏆 Argentina World Cup 2026 predictions and best bets
Argentina to be eliminated in the last quarter-finals (+425)
Argentina not finishing first in Group J with Algeria, Austria, and Jordan as their opponents would be shocking. That would set up a Round of 32 match with the second-placed team in Group H. That's almost for sure going to be Uruguay. That's no cakewalk - Uruguay is the No. 17 team in the FIFA ranks - but it should be a game that Argentina gets past. The Round of 16 brings Turkey into my bracket, which is an easier run-in (on paper) than Uruguay. Then, things get snarly.
I won't go full unit on this type of wager - Argentina can absolutely make a run to the final stages of this tournament. But a clash with the fifth-ranked team in the world, Portugal, is certainly a real possibility. It's too tempting to get this price.
🔬 SBR EDGE: The Tactical Unlock
The Pick: Argentina to be eliminated in the quarter-finals (+425)
The Why: It's just a play on the price, as I see both Argentina and Portugal reaching the quarter-finals, and I think that the +425 payout is just too good to pass up for such a solid opponent.
Market boundaries: Buy-up to: +400 | Allocation: 0.5 units
⚽ Argentina World Cup 2026 roster
Lionel Scaloni's squad is loaded with talent, but that's no shock: the Argentinians are the reigning champs.
| Player (Position) | Parent Club |
|---|---|
| Emiliano Martinez (Goalkeeper) | Aston Villa |
| Juan Musso (Goalkeeper) | Atletico Madrid |
| Geronimo Rulli (Goalkeeper) | Marseille |
| Leonardo Balerdi (Defender) | Marseille |
| Lisandro Martinez (Defender) | Manchester United |
| Facundo Medina (Defender) | Lens |
| Nahuel Molina (Defender) | Atletico Madrid |
| Gonzalo Montiel (Defender) | River Plate |
| Nicolas Otamendi (Defender) | Benfica |
| Cristian Romero (Defender) | Tottenham Hotspur |
| Nicolas Tagliafico (Defender) | Lyon |
| Valentin Barco (Midfielder) | Strasbourg |
| Rodrigo De Paul (Midfielder) | Inter Miami |
| Enzo Fernandez (Midfielder) | Chelsea |
| Giovani Lo Celso (Midfielder) | Real Betis |
| Alexis Mac Allister (Midfielder) | Liverpool |
| Exequiel Palacios (Midfielder) | Bayer Leverkusen |
| Leandro Paredes (Midfielder) | Boca Juniors |
| Nico Paz (Midfielder) | Como |
| Thiago Almada (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
| Julian Alvarez (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
| Nicolas Gonzalez (Forward) | Juventus |
| Jose Lopez (Forward) | Palmeiras |
| Lautaro Martinez (Forward) | Inter Milan |
| Lionel Messi (Forward) | Inter Miami |
| Giuliano Simeone (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
🩼 Is Messi actually injured?
Soccer teams are notorious for being cagey about injury reports, so when Messi left in the 73rd minute of Sunday's win over Philadelphia, concerns began to grow. Inter Miami has claimed that the left hamstring issue is purely "muscle fatigue" and that his June 16 availability is not in question, but a 38-year-old with a hamstring issue of any sort is something worth monitoring.
Argentina's World Cup Group Stage schedule
Argentina's three games against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan are set for the following dates:
- June 16, 2026: vs. Algeria (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.)
- June 22, 2026: vs. Austria (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
- June 27, 2026: vs. Jordan (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
❓ FIFA World Cup 2026 FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the World Cup?
Spain is the World Cup odds favorite, with odds of +450 at bet365. Those odds imply an 18.18% win probability.
Who won the last World Cup?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Where is the 2026 World Cup?
Canada, Mexico, and the United States, will host the 2026 World Cup, with 16 cities holding matches. The host cities are:
- Toronto (Canada)
- Vancouver (Canada)
- Guadalajara (Mexico)
- Mexico City (Mexico)
- Monterrey (Mexico)
- Atlanta
- Boston
- Dallas
- Houston
- Kansas City
- Los Angeles
- Miami
- New York / New Jersey
- Philadelphia
- Seattle
- San Francisco / Bay Area
When is the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 World Cup is set to run from June 11, 2026, until the final on July 19, 2026.
For the first time, 48 teams will compete when the World Cup 2026 commences this summer in the USA, Mexico, and Canada.
But what are the 2026 World Cup odds at prediction markets, and which team is the favorite to take home soccer's most glorious prize? Spain, England, and France are receiving most of the action at prediction market Kalshi, with a 43% probability that one of those juggernauts will reign supreme.
Spain leads the charge at 18%, but will La Roja win it all, or does the best pick rest with England, France, or another team?
World Cup 2026 prediction market: Who is the favorite to win?
France opened as the team to beat, according to the probability at Kalshi, hitting 26.6% on May 17, 2025. Since May 18, defending European Championship winners Spain have led the way.
World Cup favorite Spain leads the way
Spain peaked on Feb. 28, with an implied win probability of 18.8%. La Roja remains the most likely team to win the World Cup at Kalshi, with an 18% probability.
Spain's Yes price of 18 cents means a $100 investment would yield a $488 profit on a winning contract (if Spain wins the World Cup). According to our odds calculator, Spain has American odds of +488.
Is England or France the second-most likely team to win the World Cup?
The Three Lions, whom I backed in my early World Cup predictions, have repeatedly swapped places with France as the second-most likely team to win. Currently, England has a 13% probability, just ahead of France's 12%.
England has a Yes price of 13 cents, where a $100 investment would profit $669 if they win their first World Cup since 1966. That 13% probability translates to American odds of +669. Les Bleus' 12% equate to +733 American odds, which would yield a $733 profit on a $100 investment.
As of March 17, trading volume reached $6.5 million.
📊 World Cup odds 2026
Here are the World Cup odds from Kalshi's prediction market.
| Team | Chance | American odds | Yes (cents) | No (cents) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 18% | +488 | 18¢ | 83¢ |
| England | 13% | +669 | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| France | 12% | +733 | 12¢ | 88¢ |
| Argentina | 10% | +900 | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| Brazil | 10% | +900 | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| Portugal | 9% | +1011 | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| Germany | 6% | +1567 | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| Netherlands | 4% | +2400 | 4¢ | 97¢ |
| Norway | 3% | +3233 | 3¢ | 98¢ |
| Belgium | 3% | +3233 | 3¢ | 98¢ |
🇫🇷 Which team offers best value to win World Cup?
A Yes price of 13 cents to France winning the World Cup offers exquisite value. The tournament will be head coach Deschamps' last in charge of France, and he'll want to go out on top after losing in a shootout in the final of the 2022 World Cup to Argentina.
No team has a better roster or starting 11 than Les Bleus, who will be led by Golden Boot odds favorite Kylian Mbappe, which you can trade on at one of the other World Cup prediction markets.
My only concern with France is its full-backs, with Jules Koundé and Lucas Digne set to start. In the grand scheme of things, that's a minor issue considering how stacked the team is everywhere else.
Because they only have a 12% chance to win, you'll earn $733 on a winning $100 investment. It's the best value on the board.
🏴 Which team will win the World Cup?
I'm backing England to win the World Cup as I believe things will finally fall into place for the world's fourth-ranked team. They were outstanding during qualification, posting an exemplary record, keeping eight successive clean sheets.
Like France and Spain, England has an embarrassment of riches at every position. And like France, England's formidable attack is spearheaded by one of the world's three best strikers, Harry Kane.
Kane's playmaking and passing abilities set him apart from Mbappe and Erling Haaland, and he has performed well on the world's biggest stage. Unless injuries strike, England will enter the tournament with no weak links.
And being part of Group L, the tournament's Group of Death, will better prepare the Three Lions for the knockout stage. Our World Cup schedule lists all the key dates and details the participants of each group.
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.
For example, if you select Spain to win the World Cup, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 18 cents, which implies a 18% chance.
If they win the competition, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 82 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0.
Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Kalshi differs from sportsbooks because you are trading against other users in an open market, not betting against a house that sets and moves the line.
Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.
Why should I wager on the World Cup winner at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
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