Why Spain Will Win the World Cup: A Deep Dive Into La Furia Roja

We're just days away from the 2026 World Cup final, and what a final we have on our hands. The pre-tournament betting favorite, Spain, will clash with the title holders, Argentina, on Sunday. I'm having a look at why Spain will win the World Cup ahead of kickoff at 3 p.m. ET. 

Spain last reached the final in 2010, winning their only World Cup in the country's history. It was also the only time La Furia Roja reached the final. But don't mistake previous World Cup exists as weakness, this team has been on a roll in international tournaments. Spain won the 2012 and 2024 Euros, and claimed the 2023 UEFA Nations League (while finishing second in 2021 and 2025). 

So, before we make our World Cut best bets, we'll look at whether they have what it takes to claim a second world title? 

Why will Spain win the World Cup?

Undoubtedly, this will be a tight matchup. Any questions about whether Argentina was legit can be set aside after watching what they did to England in their semifinal. 

There were never any questions about the legitimacy of Spain, except for those scoreboard-watching following a slow start to group play that saw them draw Cape Verde. For those who watched the game, it was as dominant a 0-0 draw as one could imagine. Spain held Cape Verde to 26% possession while making life difficult for the debutant. 

But that game showed up why Spain will win. Argentina is a fantastic team, but here's why Spain gets the job done.

The elite press

Spain's advantage, that it has used to limit teams all tournament comes from it's possession (63.8% on average), and that number is driven by it's PPDA. 

PPDA stands for Passes Per Defensive Action, a metric that measures how many passes opponents get in the middle and attacking thirds of the field before a squad makes a defensive action (tackle, interception, foul). The lower your PPDA, the more aggressive your press, and friends, Spain's is low.

At 9.0, only two teams have a more intense press - Germany (who played only four games) and Turkey (who played only three). Spain's number has risen in recent games as it's played more difficult opponents, and it's still the only team to survive the Round of 32 with a single-digit PPDA. 

Incredible defensive numbers

The possession, boosted by the incredible PPDA, have led to some amazing defensive numbers for the Spanish side. 

Spain has allowed just 10.14 touches in its penalty box across all seven games, and just 0.31 xGA. Only one team has breached the Spanish defense, that being Belgium in the quarterfinals. Even that goal didn't give Belgium a lead - it just tied a game that they were already trailing. Spain has not trailed in the entire tournament. 

In the semifinal, against France, Spain held the tournament favorite to just 0.31xG while limiting them to three SOT on 10 total shots. Strikingly low numbers for a France squad that finished with 2.3 goals per game and still has the highest rating on FotMob. 

This team is battle tested, and they'll come out on top. 

Spain projected lineup

Spain has been rolling out a 4-2-3-1 throughout the tournament, and I don't see it changing now. One particular injury we'll want to monitor ahead of the final is that of forward Nico Williams.

Williams has found minutes hard to come by due to a groin injury, subbing in all five of his appearances (48 minutes across three group games, 19 minutes across the quarter- and semifinals). Even if he can go, he's unlikely to get the start, but the chance is likely there.

The backline four should be Marc Cucurella, Aymeric Laporte, Pedro Porro, and Pau Cubarsí. The midfield will be Fabián Ruiz, Rodri, Alex Baena, Dani Olmo, and Yamal. Up top we'll get Mikel Oyarzabal.

Unai Simon will be in net for the Spanish side.

Subs we're incredibly likely to see include Pedri, Ferran Torres, Mikel Merino, and potentially Williams.

Spain vs. Argentina prediction for a Spain win

The best sports betting sites will have plenty of options to choose from come the World Cup final (actually, they have plenty now). 

Spain has many slight edges over Argentina, and I'm going to look at the +125 mark on the moneyline for where to find the best value. Both squads have exceptional defense, but we've seen Spain only breeched once and, while Argentina was exceptional against England, we've seen their defense breached numerous times by squads such as Egypt. 

There is value in backing Spain to get this finished in regulation time. 

Predicted score for a Spain win: Spain 2, Argentina 0