Why Australia Will Win the World Cup: A Deep Dive Into La Albiceleste

We're just days away from the 2026 World Cup final, and for the first time since 1958 and 1962, we could have a back-to-back champion. The title holder, Argentina, has a chance to make it two in a row when they face the pre-tournament favorite, Spain, on Sunday. I'm having a look at why Argentina will win the World Cup ahead of kickoff at 3 p.m. ET. 

Argentina can become just the third team to win back-to-back World Cups with a victory, joining Brazil (1962, 1958) and Italy (1934, 1938). A victory would be the fourth for the country, tying them with Italy (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) and Germany (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014), and moving them within one of Brazil's five (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002).

Another loss would move them into a tie for the most runner-up showings in the history of the event, joining Germany (1966, 1982, 1986, 2002) with four.

So, before we make our World Cut best bets, we'll look at which honor the Conmebol side will add to its resume.

Why will Argentina win the World Cup?

A lot of murmurs had been creeping up for Argentina as they advanced throughout the tournament. The path to the final and a defense of the championship was as smooth as any we've ever seen. Their group featured Algeria, Austria, and Jordan (hardly a Group of Death), and their path through the knockouts saw them have to face Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland before finally facing England in the semifinal. It didn't help that they needed extra time to topple Cape Verde and Switzerland. 

The England game settled things. Argentina's press and smothering defense held the squad to just five total shots, dominating possession throughout. They've proven their legitimacy.

Jaw-dropping finishing

Attempts on net won't be easy to come by for either team in this final, but I see that as particularly the case for Argentina. However, they don't need many chances to get the job done. 

Argentina has logged a 0.13 xG/shot (fifth in the field) and has converted at a 16.96% rate (sixth). They're the more efficient team from set pieces, and their passing (90.5% accuracy) is the best in the tournament. 

Argentina's best path to victory continues to rely on their ability to capitalize on the few chances they get, as they have all tournament.

A tight defense of their own

I spent a large portion of my piece explaining why Spain will win the World Cup discussing the Spanish defense and how elite it is. 

Argentina is no pushover, either. They allow only 12.43 touches in their box per game, a space that Spain loves to work. It's easy to look at their opponent list and see that number as deflated due to who they were up against, but England mustered only seven in their semi-final game. And that compounds on this stat: they've allowed 100% of their goals from inside the box. 

So opponents don't score from outside the penalty area, and then also they don't really allow their opponent much time in the penalty area. 

To keep Spain from succeeding on Sunday, they'll have to continue to limit those chances like they did against England.

Argentina projected lineup

Argentina switched it in their last two games, rolling a 4-1-3-2 against Switzerland before a 4-1-4-1 was the shape against England. If we assume their shape for Spain will most closely match that against England, then we should see Messi feature up top alone.

Following in behind will be Julián Álvarez, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernandez, and Giuliano Simeone. Leandro Paredes will serve as the lone DMF ahead of Nicolás Tagliafico, Lisandro Martínez, Cristian Romero, and Gonzalo Montiel. 

We're likely to see Nico González, Rodrigo De Paul, Lautaro Martínez, and Nicolás Otamendi in sub. 

Emi Martinez will be in net.

Spain vs. Argentina prediction for an Argentina win

The best sports betting sites will have plenty of options to choose from come the World Cup final (actually, they have plenty now). 

There is plenty of value on Argentina lifting the trophy when the dust settles, as bet365 is offering them a +130 line to get the job done even if the game goes to extra time or pens. Argentina's best bet is to strike and turn it into a defensive battle, limiting chances as they did against England. 

Spain is better than England in just about every facet, but that's the Argentinian path to victory. 

Predicted score for an Argentina win: Argentina 1, Spain 0 (A.E.T)