⚾ Astros vs. Rangers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, May 28

This series between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers has had it all, from no-hitters to eight-run first innings, and now the AL West rivals battle it out one last time this week. First pitch from Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, is set for 8:05 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), with Spencer Arrighetti opposing Nathan Eovaldi on the rubber.

My Astros vs. Rangers prediction backs the road underdogs behind what seems to be their only consistent starting pitcher these days. Though Arrighetti has struggled with command lately, I expect him to pump the strike zone, while I add a play on Houston’s top slugger to go yard for the sixth time this series to round out my MLB picks.

⚾ Astros vs. Rangers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.87 units

🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Rangers?

Houston is 6-1 in Arrighetti’s seven starts this season, and I expect him to lead the Astros to victory over a Rangers team that has struggled with consistency of late.

Score prediction: Astros 4, Rangers 3

💰 Astros vs. Rangers prediction & best bet

Astros ML (+130)

Nathan Eovaldi is on track for his worst FIP and ERA+ since 2019. So far he’s minimizing damage with his best ground ball rate since 2015, but his .273 BABIP (his worst in four seasons) should soon start to catch up with him.

Eovaldi has an ERA north of 4.00 in six of the last seven healthy seasons against the AL West rivals. 

The Rangers are 3-3 in Eovaldi’s last six starts, but are averaging 5.7 runs in the wins and two runs in the losses. That doesn’t bode well if they’re not generating runs off of Arrighetti.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Rangers player prop bet

Spencer Arrighetti Under 2.5 walks (-130)

Many would argue Spencer Arrighetti is due for regression from his elite 1.32 ERA, as he ranks in the bottom 15 in strikeout-to-walk ratio. In fact, Justin Wrobleski is the only other starting pitcher in the bottom 15 in that metric with an ERA better than 3.50.

Arrighetti’s difference of 2.40 between his ERA and FIP is the biggest of all pitchers. But the righty has allowed so few hits outside of his walks that I expect him to start trusting his stuff and challenging batters more.

Arrighetti has allowed at least three walks in four consecutive starts, including when he issued four free passes (but just one additional hit) while shutting Texas out for 7 1/3 innings on May 15. The Rangers rank outside the top 12 of all teams in walk rate, making Arrighetti a great value play for a more strike-filled outing.

💣 Astros vs. Rangers home run prediction

Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+321)

Yordan Alvarez has gotten the better of Eovaldi in their head-to-head matchups, slashing .400/.444/.667 in 15 career at-bats, with one of his six hits being a home run.

Alvarez has still remained consistent from a home run standpoint with eight long balls in May. That is impressive in spite of his slugging percentage plummeting from .905 in March, to .701 in April, to .560 this month.

Three of Eovaldi’s highest pull air percentages have come within the last four seasons, and he ranks in the bottom half of all qualified starting pitchers in barrel rate. Meanwhile, Alvarez was slugging .733 with 15 home runs and 35 RBI in 32 career games at Texas, his most homers at any road ballpark, before adding two more yesterday. 

🚀 Astros vs. Rangers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay help Houston's chances of securing an outright victory. While backing Alvarez to homer would certainly bode well for the Astros winning, I'm swapping that wager with a more conservative play for him to drive in a run, as he has eight RBIs in his last two games after snapping a six-game drought.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Rangers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Given that Arrighetti took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Rangers two weeks ago while Eovaldi also pitched seven scoreless innings against the Astros this season, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Under in this series finale. Instead, there is more value backing the road underdogs at plus-money odds with a 43.48% implied probability. And considering Alvarez is tied for the second-most home runs in the league, I was happy to back him at anything greater than +300 odds to homer. 

📊 Live Astros vs. Rangers odds

The Astros are attracting the most early wagers of any MLB underdog today (63%). But so far that has only shortened their line at DraftKings from +129 to +123, as perhaps the number won't shorten more until closer to first pitch. If it doesn't, that's a sign that sharp money is on the favorites with the line holding firm even though it is in the minority of bets.

The total has similar betting splits, with early wagers 62/38 in support of the Under. Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 have all lowered from an opening O/U of 8.0 to align with the rest of the market at 7.5. That suggests both sharps and the public are on the same side of the total.

📈 Astros vs. Rangers betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Rangers injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Rangers

• Date: Thursday, May 28
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Globe Life Field (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Astros starter: Spencer Arrighetti (6-1, 1.32 ERA)
• Rangers starter: Nathan Eovaldi (5-5, 3.65 ERA)