Wells Fargo Championship Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips
TPC Potomac hosts the PGA Tour for the first time since 2018 this week. Rory McIlroy is the consensus favorite for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship but our golf betting experts search for better value in their top picks.
A three-time winner and defending champion of the Wells Fargo Championship, Rory McIlroy is heavily favored to win this year’s tournament despite its move from Quail Hollow Club to TPC Potomac. McIlroy’s the top golfer in the field by the measure of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), but there are 155 others looking to dethrone him.
This field is significantly stronger than last week’s Mexico Open at Vidanta, which saw top-ranked Jon Rahm pull through victorious as a +350 pre-tournament favorite. However, Rahm won by just a single stroke in the inaugural event last week and that should serve as warning of eating that much chalk in golf betting.
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Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their picks and best bets for the 2022 Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, and Jordan Anderson.
Wells Fargo Championship Expert Picks
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SEE ALSO: Wells Fargo Championship Picks and Preview
Wells Fargo Championship Expert Picks to Win
Hatton (+3600 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyrrell Hatton, the 23rd-ranked golfer in the world, is priced as low as +2000 to win this week at DraftKings Sportsbook. We’re getting excellent value at FanDuel, where he’s seemingly a forgotten name despite his world ranking.
Though he still has just one PGA Tour win to date, Hatton has four top 10 finishes through nine international events played this year, including a co-runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a Round of 16 finish at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. He hasn’t missed a cut through his nine events despite lacking his usual top form with the driver.
Hatton is tied for just 179th in driving accuracy, but he’s gaining strokes in all key areas. His 0.82 strokes gained: putting per round will be a big advantage at a course where few in this field have much proper tournament experience. We’re trusting in a return to form and the +3600 odds justify that risk. - McLaren
Fitzpatrick (+2200 via Caesars Sportsbook)
I wasn't going to take Matt Fitzpatrick this week as I have so many times before, but when you look at the stats and what it takes to succeed at TPC Potomac, it seems like it would really fit his game.
In order to be successful at TPC Potomac, you need to be accurate with your driver and solid with your irons. Fitzpatrick currently ranks 27th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee, mostly due to his accuracy, rather than his power. Additionally, Fitzpatrick ranks 19th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach with an average of .605 per round.
With a mediocre field and a price point of +2200 available on Fitzpatrick at Caesars, I'm backing him to win outright this week at the Wells Fargo Championship. - Metler
Henley (+3200 via FanDuel)
TPC Potomac is considerably shorter than Quail Hollow Club – clocking in at 7,160 yards and a par of 70. The track has been used previously by the PGA Tour, and we know elite ball-strikers and iron players excel here – which leads me to backing Russell Henley.
Strokes gained: approach will be a vital metric to gauge success this week, and over his last 24 rounds, Henley ranks first in the field at plus-26.9 in this category.
Additionally, Henley has shown a penchant to succeed on courses shorter than 7,200 yards – ranking first in the field again in strokes gained – registering a plus-51.0 mark.
Henley is in great form – making 12 of 13 cuts thus far this season, and his game is a perfect fit for TPC Potomac. Look for Henley to be atop the leaderboard come Sunday. - Anderson
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SEE ALSO: Wells Fargo Championship Prop Picks and Matchups
Wells Fargo Championship Expert Longshot Picks
Duncan (+18000 via DraftKings)
Tyler Duncan comes into this week at No. 382 in the OWGR after a missed cut at the Mexico Open. It was his fifth missed cut through 10 events to start 2022 but the shorter TPC Potomac will be much better suited to the strengths of his game.
Duncan is fifth on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and tied for seventh in par 3 scoring average. He’s also well inside the top 100 in bogey avoidance and par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards. His strength is his iron play, where he’s averaging 0.57 SG: tee-to-green per round.
Duncan’s lone PGA Tour victory was at the 2019 RSM Classic. TPC Potomac is highly comparable to Sea Island Golf Club with a heavy emphasis on driving accuracy. - McLaren
Armour (+20000 via DraftKings)
As a recommendation from someone here at SBR, I bet Ryan Armour last week and it did not come through, but this expert has demonstrated a trend throughout the year. This year, there have been several players in which he was a week early with the pick, which is why I am returning to Armour this week at the Wells Fargo Championship. In the event that Armour wins this week, he will receive the hockey assist.
This is not purely a hunch, either. Armour played at TPC Potomac in 2018, competing in what was then the Quicken Loans National, and finished second. Armour's odds this week offer some substantial price shopping value in addition to the course history.
PointsBet is offering Armour at a price of +9000 to win the Wells Fargo Championship, whereas DraftKings is offering him at a price of +20000. This is a significant difference that cannot be ignored. - Metler
Streelman (+7000 via PointsBet)
Due to its shorter length, TPC Potomac rewards accurate drivers off the tee. An area in which Kevin Streelman specializes. Over his past 24 rounds, Streelman ranks second in the field in fairways gained at plus-38.1.
He has previously shown an affinity for TPC courses – winning at TPC River Highlands in 2014.
Streelman hasn’t been great this season but did finish T-7 at the Valspar Championship in March. However, his fit and history on these courses should overshadow his recent struggles. - Anderson
SEE ALSO: PGA Championship Odds and Picks 2022
Wells Fargo Championship Top Matchup Picks
Harman (+102) vs. Mitchell (via FanDuel)
Brian Harman is someone I’m looking to back in as many as possible this week other than for the outright win. The 35-year-old hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Don't be duped by the "past champ" status.
Though he has never played TPC Potomac professionally, he does set up as a strong course fit. He’s 16th on Tour in driving accuracy and tied for 17th in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards. He also has two top-10 finishes this year in fields similar to this.
Keith Mitchell has three top 10 finishes in 2022 but the shorter TPC Potomac will largely negate his usual advantage through driving distance. He’s just 98th in driving accuracy and he ranks T-36 in bogey avoidance to Harman’s position of 25th.
Take the plus-money underdog. - McLaren
Bradley (-120) vs. Power (via DraftKings)
Keegan Bradley has been playing excellent golf lately and his game is well suited to TPC Potomac. In two of his last four PGA Tour starts, Bradley finished in the top 10, and his ball-striking has been exceptional. Across his last nine events, he has lost strokes on approach in only one tournament.
On the other side of this matchup, we have Seamus Power, someone I am backing to miss the cut this week. Power's form has dipped considerably since his hot streak from October through February. In three of his last four tournaments where this metric was recorded, Power lost strokes on approach to the green. - Metler
Finau (-120) vs. Woodland (via DraftKings)
Tony Finau is fresh off his first top-10 finish of the year at last week’s Mexico Open – finishing as a co-runner-up. Finau attributed his success to the fruition of some adjustments he’s been working on that seem to be paying dividends.
His ball-striking was fantastic last week, as he gained +2.00 strokes on approach per round – which we know is a vital metric for success at this course. Finau went super low on Sunday, with a closing round of -8, and I expect him to ride the momentum into the Wells Fargo Championship over the inconsistent Gary Woodland.
We discussed the importance of driving accuracy at TPC Potomac, which is an area Woodland struggles with – ranking 178th on Tour.Additionally, Woodland’s raw power won’t be an asset here. Look for Finau to win his matchup handily. - Anderson
Wells Fargo Championship Top Prop Picks
Top rest of the world: Ancer (+900 via PointsBet)
Abraham Ancer’s a quality value play in this player pool with a share of the second-best odds behind Canadian Corey Conners (+500). He finished just T-42 as the local favorite at the Mexico Open last week, but he has two top 10 finishes this year across 11 international events.
Ancer tied for fourth in the 2018 Quicken Loans National. He remains a strong course fit while sixth on Tour in driving accuracy and tied for 23rd in par 3 scoring and 32nd in bogey avoidance. - McLaren
The Field vs. McIlroy, Conners, Finau, or Fitzpatrick to win (+370 via PointsBet)
I usually do not engage in pre-packaged bets for golfers against the field, as I am not interested in purchasing a golfer who I believe will not win and who is mixed in with other players I like. This is not the case with this wager, as I believe all four golfers have a chance of winning the Wells Fargo Championship.
Apart from the players involved, there is also value in backing them as part of this bet as opposed to taking them all on an outright basis. If you were to visit DraftKings and add all of the odds for them to win, you would receive a price point of +300 based on their odds. In backing this prop at PointsBet, I am getting four golfers I expect to win this week and gaining an additional 70 cents on my price point. - Metler
SEE ALSO: Rory McIlroy Consensus Favorite to Win 2022 Wells Fargo Championship
First-round leader: Henley (+4000 via BetMGM)
Henley ranks third on Tour this season in first-round scoring, averaging 67.77 strokes across 13 opening rounds.
He is an excellent fit for this course and hasn’t played since missing the cut at the RBC Heritage in mid-April.
He should be refreshed and eager to get off to a quick start to regain his form. I’ll also be looking to play him in the Top 5 FRL market on BetMGM – where he is +800. - Anderson
Picks to Fade
Henley
Henley is a popular pick to win this week but I’m fading the 42nd-ranked golfer in the world at suppressed odds. He’s the 12th-best golfer in the field by the measure of the OWGR, but he shares the third-best odds to win at DraftKings.
While Henley’s a good course fit, the low price is odd considering he has just one appearance at TPC Potomac with a T-46 finish in 2017. Other golfers this week, like Marc Leishman, have decreased odds due to their strong course history at the Quicken Loans National, but that’s not something that can be said for Henley.
He’s also coming off a missed cut at the RBC Heritage and hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2017. - McLaren
Young
At this point in his career, Cameron Young is an up-and-coming golfer who has had a solid season on the PGA Tour, but +2800 to win the Wells Fargo Championship seems way too short. I have played Young in some outright markets this season, but his price point was always above +9000.
Rather than a shorter shot in a weak field, I would prefer to back Young as a longshot in a strong field. - Metler
Casey
Paul Casey hasn’t played a strokeplay event since The Players Championship in March. Since then, he has withdrawn from two events due to a back injury – including a last-minute withdrawal from the Masters.
After nearly two months off, it would be safe to assume he has done enough rehab to be back to full health, but back injuries are wonky and unpredictable. I would prefer to see him play a full round to better gauge his health and jump into the live market rather than allocating units to the unknown. - Anderson
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