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Jake Paul reacts in our Paul vs. Diaz odds.
Jake Paul reacts during a Jake Paul v Anderson Silva press conference at NeueHouse Hollywood on Sept. 12, 2022 in Hollywood, California. Harry How/Getty Images/AFP

Jake Paul’s professional boxing adventure continues Saturday night when he slings leather with UFC fan favorite Nate Diaz. Read on for our Paul vs. Diaz picks and predictions. 

Jake Paul has figured out the formula to winning boxing fights.

The YouTube star has cultivated a successful box-office boxing career by beating aging MMA stars who are seeking a big payday. With wins over Ben Askren, Tyron Woodley, and Anderson Silva, Paul has carefully selected past-their-prime mixed martial artists who still hold some sort of name value. Thus far this formula has served him well.

Enter: Nate Diaz.

The pride of Stockton, Diaz authored an excellent UFC career, hanging around the top 10 at both welterweight and lightweight.

Already a well-known commodity, the impossibly brash Diaz’s popularity skyrocketed when he choked out Conor McGregor in the main event of UFC 196 back in 2016. Diaz closed out his UFC campaign by submitting Tony Ferguson at UFC 279 before announcing a venture into the boxing realm.

Will Diaz serve as one of Paul’s usual suspects, or will the Cesar Gracie product blast Paul with a "Stockton Slap?"

Here are our best Paul vs. Diaz picks for Saturday, Aug. 5 (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Paul vs. Diaz pick

Paul to win by decision or technical decision (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Diaz is a real fighter. Of course, on the surface both men are fighters, but Diaz isn’t a boxer. Diaz is a fighter. In an MMA bout, I think Diaz feasts on Paul, as he’s a venomous grappler with the innate ability to snatch a neck (12 submissions in 21 career victories). Unfortunately for Diaz, this isn’t MMA, and he can’t drag this bout to the mat.

Diaz is a decent MMA boxer, but MMA boxing is a completely different animal. Paul’s been training boxing exclusively for years. He’s also the much younger, naturally bigger fighter, and I expect him to land the heavier shots while using his size advantage to lean on Diaz in the clinch and wear him out as the fight progresses.

That said, I don’t expect Diaz to count the lights. He possesses an iron-chin, and has proven remarkably durable during his career, falling via TKO/KO just twice in 34 bouts (one of those was cuts that led to a doctor’s stoppage). He’s leather-tough, so, although I don’t expect him to emerge with his hand raised, I do expect him to survive to see the judge’s scorecards.

Paul vs. Diaz best odds

DraftKings (+350)

Paul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by DecisionPaul by Decision

“The Problem Child” is a massive favorite in the Paul vs. Diaz odds, so there’s not a whole lot of value in backing him to win straight up unless you handcuff it to a parlay. Otherwise, your best course of action is to back a prop or a specific finish.

I see Paul winning, but I don’t expect him to banish Diaz to the land of wind and ghosts. As such, your best bet is to snatch up Paul by decision over at DraftKings (+350).

Diaz vs. Paul fight info

  • Date: Saturday, August 5, 2023
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas TX

Diaz-Paul pick made 3/8/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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