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Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson (22) shoots over New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones (35), as we offer our best Liberty vs. Aces prediction and expert pick for Saturday's WNBA matchup on ABC at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev.
Las Vegas Aces forward A'ja Wilson (22) shoots over New York Liberty forward Jonquel Jones (35) in the first quarter during Game 3 of the 2023 WNBA Finals at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Oct. 15, 2023. Photo by Wendell Cruz / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

The Las Vegas Aces host the New York Liberty in a WNBA Finals rematch on Saturday, as we offer our best Liberty vs. Aces prediction and expert picks based on the best WNBA odds.

The Las Vegas Aces (6-5) and New York Liberty (11-2) haven't met since the former beat the latter in the 2023 WNBA Finals. Those teams clash for the first time in 2024 on Saturday at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev., with tipoff set for 3 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Aces are 2-point favorites to beat the Liberty in this Finals rematch, according to our best sports betting sites, with this matchup doubling as a potential 2024 title preview between the two teams with the shortest WNBA championship odds.

Saturday's contest also features A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, winners of four of the last six MVP awards, with Wilson leading the way in the 2024 WNBA MVP odds. She's tied to one of our best bets heading into this WNBA Finals rematch in our Liberty vs. Aces picks.

Liberty vs. Aces expert picks

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

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Liberty vs. Aces predictions for Saturday

Liberty +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Look, I understand why the Aces are favored. They won three of four matchups in the Finals during 2023, they're at home, and they're generally the more high-profile team in one of the few national TV spotlight matchups.

However, I strongly disagree with our best sportsbooks and would slot the Liberty as slight favorites in this title rematch. And that has everything to do with what we've seen through the first month of the season.

New York has been blowing the doors off the competition for much of the year, ranking third in net rating (+12.6) with a seven-game win streak entering Saturday. That includes a road win over the previously undefeated Connecticut Sun and four other double-digit victories in the last two weeks.

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Meanwhile, the Aces have lost four of their last six games - including two blowout losses at home - and they clearly don't look like the same team coming off back-to-back title runs. The absence of Chelsea Gray (foot) is a concern, but this team's lackadaisical defense is an even larger issue that lacks a clear solution.

There's a reason the Liberty are the No. 1 team in my latest WNBA power rankings, while the Aces dropped to fifth. Home-court advantage isn't enough for me to close the gap between the two, especially with the Liberty carrying a little extra motivation after Las Vegas celebrated the 2023 title win on New York's home court.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel

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A'ja Wilson Over 28.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

This is about as high as you'll ever see a points prop in the WNBA. And Wilson has earned it with the way she's playing.

While the Aces have been struggling to stay above .500, Wilson has put together a historic start to 2024 while averaging 28.6 points and 11.7 rebounds per game. The first mark would shatter the single-season record that Diana Taurasi set (25.3 points per game), and the second would rank third all-time.

I'd love to bet a combined total of the two, but with props limitedright now, I feel more confident backing Wilson as a scorer. She's scored 28-plus points in eight straight games and cleared this total in six of those contests after a 32-point performance on Thursday.

You don't think Wilson will bring her A-game in a WNBA Finals rematch against the 2023 MVP winner? She's the league's single-most dominant force, and I'm willing to bet high on this total at these -115 odds, which pay out $8.70 on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.

Best odds: -115 via bet365

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Liberty vs. Aces odds

FanDuelbet365
Las Vegas Aces-2.5 (-106)-2 (-110)
New York Liberty+2.5 (-114)+2 (-110)

Liberty vs. Aces game info

  • When: Saturday, June 15
  • Tip-off: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Paradise, Nev.)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Favorite: Aces -2 (-110 via bet365)

Liberty-Aces predictions made Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

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