⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, May 2
The Bronx Bombers are home to take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs are coming off a slugfest at Wrigley Field, which means my home run predictions today are mainly ballpark-centric.
Ben Rice is offering Aaron Judge the kind of protection in the New York Yankees lineup that has quickly allowed its fans to get over losing Juan Soto, too. Then my MLB home run picks conclude with two value plays on NL East sluggers in favorable splits.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 2
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice to hit a home run (+350 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.88u | Rice has formed one of MLB's most feared hitting tandems with Aaron Judge. |
| Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+670 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.68u | The Diamondbacks are among MLB's leaders in home runs over the last two weeks. |
| Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+850 via bet365) | 0.25u → 2.13u | Hicks' home run rate is eye-popping compared to his rookie season. |
| Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+539 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.35u | Vientos is a great bet to give a struggling Mets lineup a spark. |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 6.04 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Ben Rice to hit a home run (+350)
The safest play of my four wagers is also my best home run play of the day. Ben Rice and Aaron Judge have done historic things as teammates to this point, like when they became the third pair to combine for 22 home runs and 42 walks through their team’s first 30 games.
Rice ranks fifth among all players in win probability added, and he's in the 97th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, barrels, and hard-hit rate. One of his three hits in a small five at-bat sample size against Kyle Bradish was a home run.
📡 SBR Edge: A friendly divisional matchup
The Yankees hit 26 home runs against the Orioles last year (one of two teams they hit 20-plus homers against), while their .336 BABIP in those head-to-head matchups was New York's highest against any AL opponent.
🔥 More home run picks today
Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+670)
Some may be scared off of this lefty-lefty matchup, but Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga has allowed an OPS 71 points higher in that split than against righties.
Imanaga’s 1.93 HR/9 rate was the worst among all pitchers last season (minimum 140 innings). He allowed three more home runs in three fewer innings at home than on the road. He still also comes with a fly ball rate of 33.7%, which could get him into trouble in hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field.
Over a recent nine-game span, Carroll's home run total matched what he produced in the first 18. He also thrives against left-handed pitching, recording a ridiculous 1.295 OPS in that split thus far.
Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+850)
Liam Hicks faces Phillies veteran Aaron Nola for the first time while looking to continue his home run barrage. Hicks blasted seven home runs through 29 games after hitting six home runs in 119 games as a rookie in 2025.
Nola is on pace for his second straight season with a 1.7 HR/9 rate, his two worst such campaigns over his 12-year career. These last two seasons have also been among the only three of his career when he's allowed a hard-hit rate over 40%, which bodes well for Hicks’ chances to hit him hard with his 98th percentile squared-up percentage.
Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+539)
The Los Angeles Angels' bullpen pitched to an MLB-worst 8.90 ERA while losing eight of nine games recently. Thus, Vientos has just as good of a chance to homer late in the game off a beleaguered pen as he does off of starting pitcher Reid Detmers.
Detmers has allowed a .422 slugging percentage and .725 OPS to right-handed hitters, compared to .243 and .481 marks, respectively, against lefties.
Detmers’ home ERA is nearly a full run higher than his road ERA. While he appears due for positive regression with an xERA of 2.93, the hurler still gives up too many fly balls in a hitter-friendly park (37th percentile ground ball rate).
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Only two of these sluggers are playing in their home ballparks today, but all are in what would be considered hitter-friendly environments with favorable conditions.
And to counteract the wagers on Rice and Hicks, who are two of the hottest power hitters in their respective leagues, I'm adding value with a play on Vientos in a Mets lineup that many are starting to consider an afterthought in terms of hitting home runs.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Ben Rice to hit a home run (+326)
- Corbin Carroll to hit a home run (+670)
- Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+770)
- Mark Vientos to hit a home run (+539)
Best odds: +182256 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 182.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 65-74 | +27.83 units ✅ | +28.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 45-62 | +21.0 units ✅ | +32.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Entering their series finale against the Brewers on Thursday, the Diamondbacks had hit 22 home runs in their last 13 games, with three-plus home runs in three of the previous six. That's a big resurgence for a lineup that had combined for just nine homers in the first 16 games, and it's why I'm excited to back arguably the team's best hitter in Carroll to go yard.
It also may seem curious to add a New York Mets slugger to my home run portfolio, considering they rank in the bottom five of all teams in home runs, and dead-last in slugging and ISO. But the Angels allowed 7.5 runs per game during a six-game losing streak to enter the weekend, and that provides the struggling Mets an opportunity to get right.
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