⚾ Reds vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 2

The Cincinnati Reds fell into a share of first place in the NL Central after yesterday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they look to remain there while rebounding from that 9-1 loss. The action gets underway from PNC Park in Pittsburgh at 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1), with the starting pitching matchup being between Rhett Lowder and Carmen Mlodzinski. The Pirates are listed as -138 betting favorites.

My Reds vs. Pirates prediction calls for another low-scoring game, which happens in every one of Mlodzinski’s starts. That means I’m fading Pittsburgh slugger Bryan Reynolds with one of my MLB picks.

⚾ Reds vs. Pirates picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.58 units

🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Pirates?

The Pirates have been outscored 10-1 in Mlodzinski’s last two starts, while Cincinnati is 4-2 in Lowder’s six starts, including winning twice while scoring three or fewer runs. I trust the first-place Reds more in this spot.   

Score prediction: Reds 4, Pirates 3

💰 Reds vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-102)

There have been seven or fewer runs scored in all six of Mlodzinski’s starts, with four of those finishing with a total of five or fewer runs.

Mlodzinski’s worst two starts of the season have come in his last two outings, as he's allowed nine earned runs over his previous eight innings. But both of those were on the road, and I trust that a return to PNC Park should get the righty’s issues straightened out, as he has a 1.69 ERA and .184 OBA at home this season.

🔥 Best Reds vs. Pirates player prop bet

Bryan Reynolds Under 0.5 hits (+159)

Lowder has been tough on left-handed hitters this year, allowing a .216 batting average in that split compared to a .250 average when facing righties. And over his entire 12-start career, lefties are batting just .203 with a .245 BABIP against him.

Bryan Reynolds had an interesting second half of April, when he seemingly either went hitless or had multi-hit games every time taking the field. From April 15 to the end of the month, Reynolds had four multi-hit games, but also 10 games where he went hitless, and his batting average plummeted 42 points.

Lowder’s 4.07 expected ERA compared to his actual 3.18 ERA suggests regression is looming, but he still ranks in the top half of the league in barrels and hard-hit rate. I look for him to attack Reynolds with a heavy dose of sliders and changeups that have an expected batting average of .213 and .227 against, respectively.

💣 Reds vs. Pirates home run prediction

Nathaniel Lowe to hit a home run (+800)

Nathaniel Lowe entered this series after hitting five home runs over a six-game span, marking the second time in his career he's hit that many long balls in that timeframe.

Lowe’s .654 slugging percentage ranked sixth among all major-leaguers (minimum 50 at-bats). He was also one of 17 sluggers with an ISO above .300, while being one of four in that split with a strikeout rate under 20%.

No one in this game has ever homered off the opposing starting pitcher, and Mlodzinski is one of five pitchers this season who hasn’t allowed a home run (minimum 20 innings pitched). But Lowe has as good a chance as any batter in the Reds lineup of being the first to take the righty deep.

🚀 Reds vs. Pirates same-game parlay

If Lowe does cash my home run prop wager, that would directly impact the chances of the Under cashing. Thus, since Mlodzinski hasn't allowed a home run and to give this same-game parlay more of a chance of hitting, I'm changing the third leg to a total bases play, as it still provides a juicy payout mixed with the Under and my Reynolds Under 0.5 hits wager.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Reds vs. Pirates: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

We're 32 games into the season and Cincinnati remains one of MLB's toughest teams to gauge, being in first place in the NL Central with a minus-11 run differential. While its 7-0 record in one-run games is admirable, I wanted no part of picking a side with two young hurlers toeing the rubber.

I instead expect Lowder and Mlodzinski to have the advantage early over the opposing lineup, which also means I wouldn't put anyone off backing the first five innings Under instead of the full game total. 

📊 Live Reds vs. Pirates odds

The Pirates range from -135 moneyline favorites on the low end of the market to as high as -145 at BetMGM. Early betting splits at DraftKings are 53/47 in slight favor of Pittsburgh. That suggests that sharps are backing the favorites early, as the Pirates opened at much lower -123 to -125 odds across the market.

All of the best sports betting sites were in unison with an O/U of 8 runs after some opening at 7.5, with the Over juiced as high as -118 (54.55% implied odds). There is overwhelming 3/1 betting support on the Over thus far, justifying the half-run line movement at those sportsbooks that opened at 7.5.

📈 Reds vs. Pirates betting trends

🚑 Reds vs. Pirates injuries

📺 How to watch Reds vs. Pirates

• Date: Saturday, May 2
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Reds starter: Rhett Lowder (3-1, 3.18 ERA)
• Pirates starter: Carmen Mlodzinski (1-2, 4.13 ERA)