⚾ Yankees vs. Guardians Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (June 9)

Life with Gerrit Cole began for the New York Yankees just before life with Aaron Judge ended temporarily.

But the Yankees vs. Guardians win probability from the prediction market apps pegs the Bronx Bombers as the favored side tonight nonetheless. New York is the 53% favorite to take the second game of the series after Cody Bellinger's extra innings heroics resulted in a 7-5 win over Cleveland yesterday.

The Yankees are averaging a fine though less than spectacular 4.3 runs per game without Judge. But reaching that mark might be plenty tonight with Cole on the mound.

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Guardians? Live MLB win probability

The Yankees' win probability has been gradually growing since this game opened as a near tossup.

New York was sitting on only a 51% edge on Sunday, and that grew to a high of 54.7% by late last night amid nearly $162,000 in trading volume. There was then a slight correction to where we sit now at 53%.

It's difficult to gauge how this Yankees team will fare without Judge for an extended period, but that journey did start with a series loss to these same Guardians last week. This time the Yankees are on the road too, where some of their key sluggers fare far worse.

The most notable is Cody Bellinger, who boasts a sky-high 1.149 OPS at home, but only a .599 on the road. However, the presence of Cole always looms large, and with him on the mound the Yankees likely won't need to do much scoring to prevail.

Cole is showing no lingering effects after his injury, as his fastball is averaging 96.4 mph. Opposing batters are posting just a .310 slugging percentage against the lethal weapon, according to Baseball Savant. That's a key reason why Cole is allowing a hard-hit percentage of just 28% across his first three outings this season.

My prediction: Yankees win. The Guardians rank 26th in OPS (.688), making them ill-equipped to battle Cole.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Yankees vs. Guardians?

The two primary sluggers for each side tonight, Cody Bellinger and Jose Ramirez, lead this market while each getting a 19% probability of going deep. Steven Kwan is a distant second at 5%.

It's difficult to ride with anyone on the Guardians given Cole's presence, even Ramirez. It doesn't help that Ramirez is enduring a poor first half of the season by his standards, with his OPS falling from .863 last year to .768 now.

And yes, Bellinger's home-away splits are scary, as is how much Progressive Field suppresses home runs while sitting as the ninth-worst venue in that regard, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. But do you know what's even more terrifying for opposing pitchers? How often Bellinger's uppercut swing launches the ball, no matter where he's playing.

Bellinger boasts a 92nd percentile launch-angle sweet spot percentage, according to Baseball Savant. Combine that with Cecconi putting up a mediocre 7.2 K/9, and there will be opportunities to take those uppercut hacks, with plenty of balls in play tonight.

My prediction: Cody Bellinger to hit a home run. Bellinger is also putting up a .458 batting average against cutters, a pitch Cecconi throws 24% of the time to lefties. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Yankees vs. Guardians?

This market opened on Sunday with a 47% probability of a run in the first inning. It then took a sharp dive amid just over $10,500 in trading volume, plunging to 42%. But the recovery was swift, as it soared back up to a high of 51.3% last night before leveling off to around 49%.

That puts us in tossup territory, despite the dominance of Cole.

Cole looked shaky his last time out against the Guardians while giving up four earned runs and three dingers. However, that's the only damage he's permitted so far across three starts and 18 innings. His arsenal remains nearly unmatched, and especially a slider he mostly throws to righties, which comes with an expected slugging of just .229.

Combine his brilliance with an offense still adjusting without Judge, and the ingredients are there for the NRFI. There's been a first-inning run during only two of New York's six games without Judge thus far, including opening-frame blankings throughout the most recent Yankees-Guardians series.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Cleveland can certainly do its part too with the team's anemic offense, as the Guardians rank fourth MLB-wide with a 39-29 NRFI record. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Yankees vs. Guardians win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Guardians

• Date: Tuesday, June 9
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (City, State)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Gerrit Cole (1-1, 2.00 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Slade Cecconi (3-5, 4.92 ERA)