⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, June 9
Clobbering a baseball into the far reaches of a ballpark is partly about catching up to heat, and partly about seeing through deception.
A pair of sluggers who are particularly skilled in the latter area highlight my home run predictions today, with the scorching hot Hunter Goodman and Tyler Soderstrom ready to pounce on breaking balls.
But first my MLB home run picks look toward Sal Stewart, the impressive rookie who's well-positioned to bust out of a slump.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 9
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Can Capitalize on Lucas Giolito's control issues. |
| Hunter Goodman home run (+270 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.54u | Can sit on Colin Rea's sinker and crush it. |
| Tyler Soderstrom home run (+350 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Boasts a 1.175 OPS over the past week. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.22 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Sal Stewart to hit a home run (+490)
Lucas Giolito has been struggling immensely with control over his first four starts with the San Diego Padres. Giolito, who's given up six earned runs across his last 6 2/3 innings, is posting an astronomical BB/9 of 7.0. Combine that with a near-complete inability to induce chase and a fastball averaging a turtle-like 90.7 mph, and it could be meatball heaven tonight.
And it'll be especially heavenly for Stewart with his 90th percentile barrel rate and .667 slugging percentage against four-seamers.
📡 SBR Edge: Not getting fooled
Giolito throws his changeup 37% of the time to right-handed batters, and Stewart is slugging .526 against that pitch.
π₯ More home run picks today
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+270)
If there's a white-hot slugger in the inviting thin air of Colorado and facing a pitcher who plays to his strengths, you hammer the bet.
Goodman checks all those boxes. He's inferno hot while posting a 1.142 OPS over the past two weeks, a stretch that includes belting six of his 17 home runs this season.
His strength is nailing breaking balls, a category that he's slugging .616 against, according to Baseball Savant. Zooming in further, Goodman is also slugging a triple-take-inducing .842 against sinkers.
He'll take that against the Cubs' Colin Rea, whose 3.1 BB/9 also indicates a struggle with command, and he throws his sinker 21% of the time to righties.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Tyler Soderstrom to hit a home run (+350)
Here we have another case of a breaking ball wreaking machine getting what he so deeply desires.
Tyler Soderstrom's temperature is rising too with his 1.175 OPS across the past week. He's tallied three long balls over just seven games in June, including two last night.
Now he'll likely spend much of his evening against the Brewers' Robert Gasser. Despite being gifted a perfect pitching name, Gasser doesn't lean heavily on heat, especially against lefties. He's been throwing his four-seamer 22% of the time to left-handed batters, instead relying more on breaking balls.
That plays right into Soderstrom's approach, as he's slugging .589 against breaking balls.
💸 More MLB player props
Dive into Dustin Saracini's best strikeout props today if you're looking to fatten your wallet more.
π Best home run parlay picks today
A common thread among our trio today is a love for mashing breaking balls, with Goodman and Soderstrom especially in ideal spots to sit on their pitch.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Sal Stewart home run (+490)
- Hunter Goodman home run (+270)
- Tyler Soderstrom home run (+350)
Best odds: +9723 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 1.9u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-119-2 | -10.12 units β | -17.2% β |
| Home run picks | 18-80-0 | -3.40 units β | -16.6% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-25 | -1.10 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As always, I'm not deviating from my standard unit size. But if you're wanting to take on a little more risk with a greater investment, it's a choose-your-flavor kind of day.
Stewart comes with the much more appealing price of my three picks today at +490, and he can feast on the often wayward Giolito. However, while the price of +270 for Goodman is comparably much lower, his effectiveness against sinkers and sizzling hot bat lately are more inviting, with those factors giving the bet a better chance to cash.
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