⚾ Rockies vs. Reds Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, April 30

The Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds have each split blowout wins to begin this series, setting up a rubber match from Great American Ball Park this afternoon with the Reds as -170 betting favorites. The starting pitching matchup is between Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Abbott, with first pitch scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). 

My Rockies vs. Reds prediction backs the home favorites given Colorado’s struggles against left-handed pitching. That means I’m expecting a bounce-back start from Abbott as past of my MLB picks, and I'm continuing to get behind one of Cincinnati’s top two bats that has carried the offense for much of the season.

⚾ Rockies vs. Reds picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.82 units

🏆 Who will win Rockies vs. Reds?

Prior to this season, Cincinnati was never at least nine games over .500 since Aug. 2, 2023. Thus, its been a magical 30-game start for the Reds thus far, and I don’t expect Colorado to provide much resistance against their momentum.

Score prediction: Reds 6, Rockies 3 

💰 Rockies vs. Reds prediction & best bet

Reds -1.5 (+122)

Those who believe in run differential are cautiously optimistic about the Reds, as they are minus-5 in that metric but are eight games over .500. That type of record will happen when a team is unbeaten in one-run games as Cincinnati is (7-0).

But instead of selling high on the Reds because of that data, I am fading a Rockies team that has struggled against left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of last season. Colorado is 1-3 versus southpaws this year, and won just eight of 42 games in that split last season. 

🔥 Best Rockies vs. Reds player prop bet

Andrew Abbott Over outs 17.5 recorded (-120)

As a first-time All-Star in 2025, Andrew Abbott allowed five or more runs three times, while doing so twice already this season. Shorter outings have led to his K/9 rate dropping from 8.1 last season to 6.0 this year, and he hasn’t topped five strikeouts in any of his six starts. 

Abbott leaned on his fastball heavily in his last start against Detroit, but only generated four whiffs on 24 swings against the pitch, with it sitting at an average velocity of just 92.1 mph. But I’m taking the southpaw at his word from postgame comments that he is not physically ailing in any way.

On paper, Abbott should dominate a Rockies lineup that has struck out at an NL-worst 28.3% clip against left-handed pitchers. That should lead to a more economical outing and for Abbott to complete six innings for the first time since Opening Day.  

💣 Rockies vs. Reds home run prediction

Elly De La Cruz to hit a home run (+307)

Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz have carried the Reds offense. As of a week ago yesterday, De La Cruz and Stewart had combined to slash .287/.368/.600 with 16 home runs and a 160 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR. The rest of the team to that point was slashing .183/.283/.273 with 11 home runs, a 57 wRC+, and a minus-1.7 fWAR. 

De La Cruz has homered in five of the last six series, and his six games with multiple home runs are the most in Reds history by a switch hitter. He ranks ninth in fWAR among position players since the start of 2024, and is a good bet to tag Lorenzen for a homer today.

🚀 Rockies vs. Reds same-game parlay

This three-leg same-game parlay meshes nicely, with the combination of a dominant start from Abbott and De La Cruz being successful at the plate should lead to a Reds cover.

I'm backing De La Cruz to record an RBI as the last leg of this parlay instead of including the home run wager, as Lorenzen hasn't allowed a home run in the last 12 innings, spanning two starts. Meanwhile, De La Cruz was batting .444 with a 1.214 OPS and 10 extra-base hits in his previous 16 games versus the Rockies after Monday's series opener.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Rockies vs. Reds: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

There is much one can scrutinize about today’s selections, starting with laying the 1.5 runs with a Reds team that has played seven one-run games to this point. But there is more value with their runline odds than their -170 moneyline odds, especially when Cincinnati is 10-4 against the runline in its last 14 games. 

In addition, I toyed with the idea of backing the Over of 4.5 on Abbott’s strikeouts against Colorado’s whiff-prone lineup. But I didn’t love that his season-high for K’s is five, and the Rockies have less chances to turn in a big inning against the southpaw like the Angels and Tigers did in his two shortest outings of the season.

📊 Live Rockies vs. Reds odds

The Reds range from -170 moneyline favorites on the low end of the market to as high as -175 at BetMGM and DraftKings. Perhaps as a direct reaction to yesterday's 13-2 lopsided victory, Colorado is one of the most popular underdogs thus far, attracting 51% of moneyline wagers. While that would suggest the line will steam in its favor today, I predict there will be enough sharp action on the Reds to balance it out.

All of the top sports betting sites are in unison with an O/U of 9, with the Under juiced as high as -120 (54.55% implied odds) at Caesars and bet365. Early betting splits are 64/36 on the Over after last night's 15-run game, making the Under one of the most contrarian plays on a total on today's 11-game slate.

📈 Rockies vs. Reds betting trends

🚑 Rockies vs. Reds injuries

📺 How to watch Rockies vs. Reds

• Date: Thursday, April 30
• First pitch: 12:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rockies starter: Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 5.97 ERA)
• Reds starter: Andrew Abbott (0-2, 6.59 ERA)