⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, April 30
Of the 18 starting pitchers toeing the rubber amid today’s nine-game MLB slate, one is St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who owns the second-worst HR/9 rate among all qualified pitchers. That is why I’m backing Bryan Reynolds to go deep as one of my top home run predictions today.
As today’s slate is not littered with pitchers prone to giving up long balls, my MLB home run picks occasionally oppose those with low ERAs, like Framber Valdez with my Michael Harris II wager. I also add a value play on one of the hottest hitters in the sport, and fade the Houston Astros’ poor pitching staff with another play amid a doubleheader.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 30
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+700 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.75u | Reynolds looks to snap an 18-game homeless drought against the home run prone Matthew Liberatore |
| Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+850 via bet365) | 0.25u → 2.13u | Harris II is amid the best power streak of his young career |
| Jeremiah Jackson to hit a home run - Game 2 (+700 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.75u | Jackson looks to take advantage of MLB's worst pitching staff |
| Ildemaro Vargas to hit a home run (+1000 via bet365) | 0.25u → 2u | Vargas is a great value play to extend his hitting streak with a home run |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 7.63 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+700)
Matthew Liberatore has curious reverse splits as a southpaw, allowing a .387/.424/.839 slash line to left-handed batters, compared to a .267/.327/.433 slash line to righties. As such, half of his eight home runs allowed have come against lefties despite only facing them in 31 at-bats (59 fewer than righties).
Reynolds has a home run in 12 career at-bats off Liberatore. Even though his 112 OPS+ is lower than his career number of 119, his 50th percentile barrel and 57th percentile hard-hit rates suggest positive regression in the power department.
📡 SBR Edge: Power in Pittsburgh
Thanks to several offseason acquisitions, Pittsburgh ranks in the top half of the league in home runs, after finishing last in the majors in home runs last season (31 fewer than the 29th-best team).
🔥 More home run picks today
Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+850)
Framber Valdez has only allowed two home runs this year, but both have come on the road, where his ERA balloons to 5.06. And Valdez allows a higher batting average to lefties, with the slugging percentages being comparable between splits.
Michael Harris II’s splits since 2025 are telling of how far he’s come as a power hitter. Through July 10 of last year, he batted .205 with a .539 OPS and six home runs through 90 games. From July 11 to the end of 2025, he batted .302 with 14 home runs and a .848 OPS over the final 70 games. And through the first 27 games, this season, he had already belted six home runs while producing a .919 OPS and batting .323.
Jeremiah Jackson to hit a home run- Game 2(+700)
Orioles second baseman Jeremiah Jackson has caught some heaters already this season, like when he homered five times in a seven-game span two weeks ago. And as of one week ago, his hitting in the clutch was on par with the best sluggers in the game, when he was slashing .389/.400/.722 with runners in scoring position.
Jackson should face Lance McCullers Jr. in his first couple of at-bats, a righty who is following up a career-worst 1.6 HR/9 rate with another poor 1.4 HR/9 rate this season.
The usual ground-ball inducing McCullers is on pace for a career-worst 47.1% ground ball rate, while his .423 xSLG is only slightly worse than last year’s career high of .428.
Ildemaro Vargas to hit a home run (+1000)
Entering this series, Ildemaro Vargas was amid a 23-game hitting streak, during which he batted .367 with 13 extra-base hits and 21 RBI.
Vargas ranked fourth in OPS (1.070) since the start of April (min. 65 PA). And among those with a minimum of 80 plate appearances, Vargas also ranked first in average, third in slugging, third in wRC+, 15th in strikeout rate, and ninth in fWAR.
He is a late bloomer, as over 460 career games from 2017-25, he slashed .249/.289/.357 with 20 home runs, a 75 wRC+, and a 1.5 fWAR.
As a left-handed batter this season, Vargas has hit the ball in the air 46.8% of the time, with a 31.9% pull air percentage.
🤑 More MLB player props
Looking for props on this fine Thursday? Dive into my Rockies vs. Reds prediction.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Three of the four picks involved in this home run parlay were not thought of as huge home run hitters entering this season, but are amid the best hitting stretches of their careers, especially from a home run perspective. But in the case of the Bryan Reynolds wager, I am simply fading one of MLB's worst pitchers in terms of keeping the ball in the yard, and am doing so in the southpaw's worse hitting split.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run (+700)
- Michael Harris II to hit a home run (+850)
- Jeremiah Jackson to hit a home run (+700)
- Ildemaro Vargas to hit a home run (+1000)
Best odds: +668700 via bet365 (0.1u -> 66870u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 60-70 | +24.2 units ✅ | +26.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 42-58 | +19.39 units ✅ | +31.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I am not straying from my formula that generated most of my near 20-unit profit on player props this season, and am placing 0.25 units on each of my four home run wagers. I always aim for the value like today's four-pack of picks provide, only needing to hit on one to generate a profit for the day.
With the Jeremiah Jackson pick, it is also worth a reminder to take into account a team's bullpen when making a home run pick, as batters may only get half of their at-bats in a game against the starting pitcher. That's why I find value there, as Astros relievers rank dead last in the majors with a 6.27 ERA, and will be pitching in the second game of a doubleheader.
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