⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 5
The MLB's biggest rivalry is set to open up its second series of the season tonight when the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees. Sonny Gray toes the rubber for the Red Sox, while Ryan Weathers takes the mound for the Yankees.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction includes a run total, a player prop, a home run prop, and a same-game parlay for tonight's four MLB picks. Catch the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB.TV) from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, with New York valued as a -145 home favorite.
⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8 (-118 via DraftKings) | 1.18u → 1u | Run total under has won in six straight head-to-head matchups between the Red Sox and Yankees. |
| Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1.14u | Gray has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in three of last four starts and faces a lineup ranked 23rd in strikeouts per game (8.73). |
| Jarren Duran Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.37u | 2 home runs in last five starts, facing Weathers, who has allowed five home runs across previous three starts. |
Total wagered: 2.43 units | Max profit: 3.51 units
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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Yankees?
Despite the optics, the Red Sox are in a position to pull off the upset at Yankee Stadium tonight. Gray has been a notably better pitcher than Weathers, while Boston is 5-1 SU in its last six road games.
Gray is 6-1 as a starter in 2026. He's won four of his last five starts, holding four of these opponents to one earned run or fewer.
The Yankees are 1-2 SU in their last three home games. Gray should pitch well enough to avoid consecutive losses for the Red Sox, likely yielding a 4-2 road win in the Bronx.
Score prediction: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2
💰 Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Under 8 (-118)
The Red Sox and Yankees went 3-0 to the under on the run total in their first series at Fenway Park. The last six head-to-head matchups have also gone under the run total line.
Both teams have been going over the run total line lately. However, tonight's matchup features an elite pitcher in Sonny Gray. Boston's starter ranks 72nd in pitching run value and 89th in fastball run value this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his past five starts.
Go to DraftKings for the best price on under 8.0 total runs at -118 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Bronx Bombers Quiet at Home
In five of the Yankees' last seven home games, the run total has gone under. Final scores at Yankee Stadium during this stretch have been 2-1, 2-0, 4-2, 2-0, 9-4, 5-4, and 2-1. Gray should continue limiting runs in tonight's matchup.
🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop bet
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114)
We're getting plus odds on Sonny Gray to go over 5.5 strikeouts against one of the league's top lineups for punch outs. The Yankees are 23rd in strikeouts per game (8.73) and have struck out even more lately, averaging 9.33 in their last three outings.
Gray has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in three of his previous four starts. All three of those performances came in 6.0 innings of work.
Since Gray tends to limit runs, he'll likely have plenty of pitches to rack up six strikeouts. Stay at DraftKings for a lucrative +114 odds for Gray to finish with over 5.5 strikeouts.
💣 Red Sox vs. Yankees home run prediction
Jarren Duran to hit a home run (+550)
Jarren Duran has been one of the few bright spots in one of the league's worst-hitting lineups this season. The lefty has 10 home runs in 2026, second on the Red Sox, which includes two bombs in Duran's last five starts.
He's ranked in the 87th percentile for bat speed (75.3) and 73rd in barrel rate (11.5), with an average exit velo of 90.5 in the 70th percentile. Now, in a shallow ballpark like Yankee Stadium, Duran draws a prime matchup against Ryan Weathers.
Weathers has given up five home runs across his last three starts. Bet365 offers the best price on Duran to hit a home run at +550 odds.
🚀 Red Sox vs. Yankees same-game parlay
The Red Sox have won five of their last six road starts. This includes +1.5 in eight of their last nine road games. We've already covered why under 8.0 total runs is our best bet, as it's hit in six straight matchups. Go to Caesars for a +191 two-leg same-game parlay.
💵 Red Sox vs. Yankees SGP picks
- Red Sox +1.5 (-170)
- Under 8 (-120)
Best odds: +191 via Caesars Sportsbook (0.75u -> 1.43u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-13-2 | -1.33 units ❌ | -9.6% ❌ |
| Game picks | 2-1-1 | +0.85 units ✅ | +21.25% ✅ |
| Player props | 2-9-1 | -0.85 units ❌ | -13.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 1-3 | -1.33 units ❌ | -44.3% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Yankees: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm dropping 3.18 units across four bets on tonight's AL East rivalry tilt between the Red Sox and Yankees. My best bet is on under 8.0 total runs, available at -118 on DraftKings.
Sonny Gray's pitching has been elite lately, so now that he's going up against a lineup with big strikeout volume, another one-unit is being deployed on Gray to finish with over 5.5 strikeouts at plus odds.
Red Sox LF Jarren Duran to hit his 11th home run at +550 odds on bet365 warrants a quarter-unit wager. Finally, a two-leg same-game parlay with a 0.75-unit wager will be placed on a good road team like the Red Sox on the run line at +1.5 and under 8.0, yielding +191 odds on Caesars Sportsbook.
📊 Live Red Sox vs. Yankees odds
The lines on the moneyline and total runs markets have hardly shifted since opening. The Yankees moved from -150 to -145 betting favorites, while the total remains at a flat 8.0.
72 percent of public moneyline wagers are on the Yankees as home favorites tonight, including 55 percent of -1.5 run line bets. Over 8.0 total runs is garnering 57 percent of public action.
📈 Red Sox vs. Yankees betting trends
| Red Sox | Statistic | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| 26-35 | W-L record | 37-25 |
| 25-36 | Run line record | 30-32 |
| 28-31-2 | O/U record | 28-31-3 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 3.85 | Team ERA | 3.28 |
| .248 | Team batting avg. | .241 |
| .699 | OPS | .761 |
🚑 Red Sox vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Date: Friday, June 5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (6-1, 3.06 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Ryan Weathers (2-3, 3.52 ERA)
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