In the ALCS battle between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros, where the visiting team has emerged victorious in every game, securing another road win in Game 6 is crucial to keeping the series alive, and our most reliable Rangers vs. Astros predictions are supported by the top MLB odds available.
Houston dominated all three games at Globe Life Field, outscoring Texas 23-12 to take a 3-2 lead in the ALCS. Now, Texas aims to build on the momentum gained from winning the first two games at Minute Maid Park, where they stifled the Astros' offense and secured 2-0 and 5-4 victories.
Drawing from historical patterns, the Astros currently hold the advantage. Teams that won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series tied 2-2 have historically clinched the series 71% of the time. This trend is supported by oddsmakers, with Houston now having -450 odds (while Texas' odds are at +350) to win the series.
Here is our best Rangers vs. Astros prediction for Game 6 of the ALCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Astros ML (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There is certainly reason for the Rangers to be optimistic entering Game 6 despite losing three straight in this series. The team wasted another strong outing from Jordan Montgomery in Game 5 (he is 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA in four postseason starts), as Jose Leclerc blew his first postseason save (he had been 3-for-3 in save opportunities with 7 1/3 innings and one earned run in seven postseason games before Game 5).
Nathan Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and led the team to a 5-4 victory in Game 2. However, that result could have been a lot different if Houston didn't go 0-6 with runners in scoring position, including failing to score with bases loaded and no outs in the fifth inning. Thus, we expect Houston’s newfound offensive momentum to propel it to a series-clinching Game 6 victory.
In Games 1 and 2, Jose Altuve was a combined 0-for-8. In the three games at Globe Life Field, he went 6-for-14 with two home runs, four extra-base hits, and six runs scored.
Besides Altuve, Houston’s offensive success was heavily predicated on getting leadoff runners on base. In the first two games, of the 18 Astros batters who led off an inning, five reached base, and only two scored. In Games 3 to 5, 12 of the 27 Astros to lead off an inning reached base, and nine scored. In addition, Yordan Alvarez has been much more clutch, starting the postseason 1-for-11 with runners on base but going 8-for-11 since.
Conversely, Texas’ offense was stifled at home, being held to a .182 average (10-for-55) from the fourth inning of Game 4 to the end of Game 5, with just three extra-base hits in that span. The Rangers are getting next to nothing from the top two batters in the lineup, as Marcus Semien is 3-for-21 and Corey Seager is 5-for-22 in the series, with the two combining to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position.
The Rangers should continue to struggle against Astros southpaw Framber Valdez, who induced a 25% CSW rate or better on three of his four primary pitches in Game 2.
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Rangers vs. Astros best odds
DraftKings is the easy choice for our go-to shop as Astros backers, as its -120 price is at least five points cheaper than its next competitor.
Given the momentum that Houston heads home with, it was also tempting to play the run line, as one can get up to +165 odds to lay the -1.5 runs at bet365. However, Houston’s moneyline odds are cheap relative to how the last three games have played out, so we are content to back an outright win.
The only moneyline movement thus far has come at DraftKings, as Houston lowered slightly from -122 to -120 favorites. This aligns with the betting splits that are 62/38 in favor of the Rangers. The underdog has won the last nine games between these two teams.
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with an O/U of 8.5 runs, though only FanDuel (-112) and Caesars (-115) are juiced to the Over. Early betting splits are 2/1 (64/36) in support of the Over, and the Over has cashed in four of Houston’s previous five home games.
- When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 8:03 p.m. ET
- Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: Indoors
Rangers-Astros pick made 10/21/2023 at 9:46 a.m. ET.
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