⚾ Padres vs. Giants Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, May 4

An opportunity to pick on one of the most offensively inept teams in MLB awaits in prime time tonight.

That's the focus of our Padres vs. Giants prediction, with the first pitch flying at 9:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Oracle Park. The Padres enter as the -135 favorites.

Both teams have been scuffling, with the Giants dropping six straight, and San Diego losing four of its last five. But as we look ahead to Randy Vasquez vs. Trevor McDonald in my MLB picks, there's a clear chance to capitalize on the Giants' utter lack of power.

⚾ Padres vs. Giants picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 1.20 units | Max profit: 2.88 units

🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Giants?

The Padres will prevail, and they'll be the next team to benefit from facing the Giants' impossibly bad offense. However, a quality Giants bullpen can get this game from truly reaching blowout territory.

Score prediction: Padres 5, Giants 2

💰 Padres vs. Giants prediction & best bet

Padres ML (-135)

The Padres can certainly do their part, but this pick is more about fading the Giants' offense at every opportunity.

San Francisco's lineup has been woeful while scoring the league's fewest runs. The Giants have been shut out twice during their current six-game losing streak, a stretch when they're somehow averaging just 1.5 runs per game.

The Giants possess almost no power while entering tonight with a .642 OPS. The sudden spiral of Rafael Devers sure isn't helping matters. He's striking out 30.7% of the time with an expected slugging of only .347.

🔥 Best Padres vs. Giants player prop bet

Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 strikeouts (-131)

Yes, the one redeeming quality of the Giants' offense is the club doesn't strike out much, with San Francisco recording the sixth-fewest strikeouts thus far.

But that's baked into this already low line, and projections are slotting Vasquez in for 4.1 strikeouts tonight. That aligns with his K/9 that sits at 9.1, a sudden spike up from 5.3 last year. Much of that is due to improved movement on his four-seamer, which has translated to a sparkling .149 opposing slugging percentage against that pitch.

Regression to some degree strikeout wise could come for Vasquez because he's allowing hard contact. But the Giants' putrid offense isn't positioned to start that slide tonight.

💣 Padres vs. Giants home run prediction

Manny Machado to hit a home run (+690)

This is a difficult game if you're dinger hunting. Vasquez comes in with an HR/9 of just 0.8, and for as awful as the Giants have been elsewhere, their stellar bullpen could be asked to pitch much of this matchup. The unit is second in MLB with a 3.01 ERA. Oh, and Oracle Park is the least homer-friendly venue leaguewide, according to Statcast's ballpark factors.

But if you're wanting to sprinkle some lottery money on someone, go with the heating up Manny Machado. He's gone deep three times over his last six games, and his OPS has risen from .609 on April 22 to .742 now.

The success he's finding has been through feasting on anything offspeed, as Machado is carrying a .643 slugging percentage against those offerings.

🚀 Padres vs. Giants same-game parlay

I'm including my two most confident plays in this parlay, and going a little more conservative with Machado, especially given all the home run forces against him tonight. The Over on his total bases prop still provides a nice little boost.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Padres vs. Giants: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The only concern while wagering a combined two units between the Padres' moneyline and the Over on Vasquez's strikeout total is the Giants' ability to avoid walking back to the dugout bat in hand.

But it won't take much to clear a line of 3.5, and the presence of Devers, Willy Adames, and Heliot Ramos alone could get Vasquez there. Adames and Devers are posting an identical strikeout rate of 39.7%, with Ramos not far behind at 29.2%.

📊 Live Padres vs. Giants odds

The moneyline has stayed relatively steady since the market opened, with the Padres remaining around -135 throughout. They're receiving the bulk of the support while getting 73% of the bets at DraftKings.

Elsewhere, it wouldn't be surprising to see Vasquez's strikeout line rise to 4.5 before first pitch, as 3.5 is juiced to -143 through DraftKings. I would be much more hesitant if that move happens.

📈 Padres vs. Giants betting trends

🚑 Padres vs. Giants injuries

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Giants

• Date: Monday, May 4
• First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Oracle Park (San Francisco)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Randy Vasquez (3-0, 2.94 ERA)
• Giants starter: Trevor McDonald (1-0, 1.80 ERA in 2025)