⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Monday, May 4
Mashing from the left side is a highly coveted skill that can lead to a whole lot of appealing matchups to exploit, which is the case in our home run predictions today.
My MLB home run picks are tabbing three such sluggers in Juan Soto, Cal Raleigh, and Trent Grisham. Raleigh and Grisham still carry quality under-the-hood metrics despite slow starts in other areas, while Soto will be letting it fly at Coors Field.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 4
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh home run (+360 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.72u | An underwhelming start, but he's still barreling the ball up well. |
| Juan Soto home run (+220 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.44u | Thin air of Colorado plus a date with regression candidate Tomoyuki Sugano. |
| Trent Grisham home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Shane Baz has been struggling immensely against lefties. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 1.98 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+360)
The Big Dumper is off to a sluggish start by his skyscraper-level standards.
But he's still clubbed seven homers a little over a month into the season, and although many of his underlying metrics are down, there's encouragement to be found in his barrel rate that sits in the 82nd percentile leaguewide.
Raleigh has always sold out for power, and that's still coming when he connects. And tonight he'll be taking many of his hacks against Atlanta Braves rookie JR Ritchie, who's promising but has been struggling with his command through two starts while posting a BB/9 of 4.4.
📡 SBR Edge: Offspeed damage
Ritchie throws his changeup 26% of the time to lefties, which is the side where he'll see the switch-hitting Raleigh. Even amid his struggles, the catcher is slugging .545 against changeups.
π₯ More home run picks today
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+220)
It's impossible to resist the allure of Soto at Coors Field, so I'm not going to try.
The Colorado Rockies' mountain home unsurprisingly finished as the eighth-most homer-friendly ballpark last year, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. And now Soto brings his 98th percentile expected slugging percentage (.628, according to Baseball Savant) to that hitter's paradise.
And he'll do that against Tomoyuki Sugano, who's off to a surprisingly impressive start while boasting a 2.84 ERA. However, a trip to regression town surely looms, as Sugano's expected ERA of 5.53 is far higher than his actual production. And his barrel rate of 12.9% rests in just the 10th percentile.
Trent Grisham to hit a home run (+410)
At first Grisham's .162 batting average seems wildly unappealing. But although yes that's low even for him, he hit .235 last year while clubbing 34 homers.
The latter is all that matters here, and Grisham arrives at his power while focusing on pulling the ball. His pull percentage has been at or above 40.0 during each of the past two seasons, and that approach while trying to clear the short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium as a lefty has been working just fine. His squared-up percentage sits at 42.6% (100th percentile) now, and Grisham's 51.8 hard-hit rate is in the top 10% leaguewide.
He'll take all that against the Baltimore Orioles' Shane Baz tonight, who's scuffling a whole lot against lefties while putting up a .965 OPS allowed.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're rolling with the left side today, and pouncing on three lefties (or a switch-hitter in Raleigh's case) in appealing matchups. Grisham can be a highly streaky hitter, and he's logged three extra-base hits across as many games recently, including a dinger.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Cal Raleigh home run (+360)
- Juan Soto home run (+220)
- Trent Grisham home run (+410)
Best odds: +7407 via FanDuel (0.10u -> 7.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-61-0 | -3.48 units β | -9.4% β |
| Home run picks | 9-38-0 | -0.83 units β | -20.6% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-8 | -0.70 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
The hitter to invest a little more into today is Grisham, in part due to the Yankee Stadium factor, and partly because of Baz limping along against lefties. Baz has also allowed a .361 batting average against lefties, and a .542 slugging percentage.
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