⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Monday, May 4
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Today for Monday (May 4)
Don't look now, but yes, we are on an 11-2 run over our last week - may the force be with us on this fine Monday. We're targeting the Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels to get us six simple outs. Let's throw up a few zeroes - again.
ā¾ Best NRFI bets today: May 4
See all of our expertsā MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds. Odds via FanDuel.
| ā¾ NRFI pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Tigers NRFI (-166) | 2u ā 1.20u | Red Sox own .254 xwOBA vs. Skubal |
| White Sox vs. Angels NRFI (-140) | 1u -> 0.71u | Soriano owns 0.84 ERA through 42.2 innings |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 1.91 units
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š° Best NRFI bets today for Monday
Red Sox vs. Tigers NRFI (-166) - 6:40 p.m. ET
- Payton Tolle (3.38 ERA) vs. Tarik Skubal (2.70 ERA)
- NRFI records: Red Sox (19-15) vs. Tigers (20-15)
While we don't love the sample size we're seeing from youngster Payton Tolle, let's be honest, this play is about Tarik Skubal. The AL Cy Young odds favorite is striking this struggling Red Sox offense out at a 28% clip across 72 plate appearances while limiting them to a .254 xwOBA. He's less than a month removed from dominating Boston, too, throwing six innings of one-run baseball while striking out 10. Let's get three simple outs from Tolle and we're golden here.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into Sean Tomlinson's home run predictions for Monday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
White Sox vs. Angels NRFI (-140) - 9:38 p.m. ET
- Davis Martin (1.95 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (0.84 ERA)
- NRFI records: White Sox (19-15) vs. Angels (16-19)
Here's a case of two hot pitchers with strong sample sizes against teams they dominate. Let's fire this up as part of our best NRFI bets today. Martin is limiting the Angels to a .239 xBA across 53 plate appearances while Soriano is hands down the best pitcher in baseball right now. In his last 22.2 innings, he's allowed just three earned runs, and strikes this White Sox roster out at a 24.2% clip. I'd price this bet closer to -160 than the -140 betting odds we're getting. Let's ride.
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-20 | +4.76 units |
| NRFI picks | 20-18 | +3.28 units |
š” How I'm betting NRFI picks today (May 4)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
ā NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.,
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