🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Expert Picks for Monday, May 4
📡 SBR Edge: McDaniels Scores 17+
My NBA player props today feature Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points (-120), as he should see an increased role after putting up 32 points in Game 6 against the Nuggets. My next NBA best bet is Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points (-115). He has attempted six or fewer field goals in back-to-back games. I wrap up my top picks with Quentin Grimes Under 6.5 points (-102), as he has scored three or fewer points in each of his last two outings.
π Best NBA player props today: May 4
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points | -120 via FanDuel | 1.2u -> 1u | Should see increased role after 32-point performance |
| Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points | -115 via BetMGM | 1.15u -> 1u | Has attempted 6 or fewer shots in back-to-back games |
| Quentin Grimes Under 6.5 points | -102 via DraftKings | 1.02u -> 1u | Has scored 3 or fewer points in each of his last 2 games |
Total wagered: 3.37 units | Max profit: 3 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet today
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points (-120) at Spurs
McDaniels led Minnesota with 32 points in Game 6, and while that stat line alone isnβt enough to bet his Over, it showed the coaching staff heβs capable of being the No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards, who wonβt be at 100 percent today after missing two games.
With Julius Randle struggling with inconsistency - he scored 16 or fewer points three times in the first round - McDaniels should be who the Timberwolves turn to moving forward. FanDuel lists McDaniels Over 16.5 points at -120, but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites.
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
The Timberwolves have the longest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points (-115) at Spurs
Gobert hasnβt been involved in the offense lately. He has attempted six or fewer shots in each of his last two games and has scored four or fewer points in three of his last four. It would've been reasonable to assume that Gobert would've taken on a bigger role with Edwards out, but with the Timberwolves star likely returning today, it looks like his production will continue to drop.
And going up against Victor Wembanyama probably wonβt help. Gobert Under 8.5 points is -115 at BetMGM, but I would play this up to -135 on the best NBA betting sites.
Quentin Grimes Under 6.5 points (-102) at Knicks
It looks like Nick Nurseβs game plan moving forward does not involve Grimes taking a lot of shots. He has attempted six or fewer in back-to-back games, scoring three or fewer points in each outing. He has cashed this prop in four of his last six games and ranks 6th on the 76ers in playoff scoring (7.1 PPG) - and that number is heavily skewed by an 18-point performance in Game 5, which was out of the ordinary.
His Under 6.5 is -102 at DraftKings, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -120 on the best sports betting apps.
🏀 More 76ers vs. Knicks player props
I feature Quentin Grimes and OG Anunoby in my 76ers vs. Knicks player props.
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 12.5 rebounds + assists | -105 |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists | -120 |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 15.5 points + assists | -120 |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | Under 20.5 points | -135 |
| Dylan Harper | Spurs | Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists | -150 |
π Best NBA parlay picks today
Anunoby scored 22 or more points in three of the Knicks' final four games in the first round. The concern with Anunoby's Over here is that if the Knicks are covering early, they may slow down the game in the fourth quarter, or even rest players if they're up 20 or more points. If the 76ers can keep this game close, it will provide Anunoby with more opportunities to score late. Bet365 offers this parlay at +320, while FanDuel offers it at +279.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- 76ers +7.5
- OG Anunoby Over 17.5 points
Best odds: +320 via bet365 (0.26u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 158.5-177-4.5 | -10 units β | -2.9% β |
| Player props | 141-123-4 | -7.92 units β | -2.5% β |
| Parlays | 13.5-49-0.5 | -1.2 units β | -6.2% β |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units β | -13.1% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50.5-51-0.5 | +7.03 units β | 9.1% β |
| Player props | 42-24 | +11.61 units β | 18.4% β |
| Parlays | 5.5-22-0.5 | -2.19 units β | -27% β |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units β | -52.5% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props today
With two Game 1s on the slate today, I'm looking to carry over trends from the first round of the playoffs. How players were used at the end of that round is generally more predictive moving forward than their head-to-head stats against second-round opponents (in most cases).
For example, we saw Grimes get fewer touches as the series against the Celtics went on, so even if he had strong stats against the Knicks in the regular season, it wouldnβt matter as much - he likely wonβt get the volume needed to go Over on his points anyway.
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