🏀 Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Props Tonight: NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Game 1
📡 SBR Edge: McDaniels Heats Up in San Antonio
My Timberwolves vs. Spurs player props for Game 1 tonight feature Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points (-120). He should see an increased role moving forward after scoring 32 points in a first-round closeout game. My second NBA best bet is Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points (-115), as he has attempted six or fewer field goals in each of his last two games.
π Best Timberwolves vs. Spurs player props: NBA Playoffs Game 1
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds for the playoffs.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points | -120 via FanDuel | 1.2u -> 1u | Should see increased role after scoring 32 in a closeout game |
| Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points | -115 via BetMGM | 1.15u -> 1u | Has attempted 6 or fewer FG in back-to-back games |
Total wagered: 2.35 units | Max profit: 2 units
π° Best Timberwolves vs. Spurs prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 points (-120)
McDanielsβ 32-point effort in Game 6 caught my attention, and Iβm assuming the coaching staff also saw that they can lean on him as a No. 2 option behind Anthony Edwards, who wonβt be at 100 percent tonight after missing two games.
With Julius Randleβs inconsistency in the first round - he scored 16 or fewer points three times - I expect McDaniels to be the Timberwolvesβ go-to secondary scorer as the series develops. FanDuel has his Over 16.5 points at -120, but this bet is good up to -140 on the best sports betting sites.
Jaden McDaniels player prop trends
Here's a look at how McDaniels has performed recently, as well as against the Spurs:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Spurs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 16.5 points | -120 via FanDuel | 2-3 β | 1-4 β |
| Over 4.5 rebounds | +105 via BetMGM | 3-2 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 2.5 assists | -105 via BetMGM | 4-1 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 1.5 three-pointers made | +131 via Pinnacle | 0-5 β | 1-4 β |
🏀 More NBA player props
I feature Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, and Quentin Grimes in my NBA player props tonight.
π₯ More Timberwolves vs. Spurs prop picks
The Timberwolves have the longest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points (-115)
Gobert has been a non-factor offensively in recent games, attempting six or fewer shots in back-to-back outings and scoring four or fewer points in three of his last four.
With Edwards likely returning tonight, itβs unlikely that Gobert will suddenly see an increase in his role in the offense. Itβs not as if facing Victor Wembanyama will make things any easier for him, anyway. Gobert Under 8.5 points is -115 at BetMGM, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to -135 on the best sports betting apps.
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 12.5 rebounds + assists | -105 |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 23.5 points + rebounds + assists | -120 |
| Josh Hart | Knicks | Over 15.5 points + assists | -120 |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | Under 20.5 points | -135 |
| Dylan Harper | Spurs | Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists | -150 |
π Timberwolves vs. Spurs same-game parlay
While Gobert's Under on points and Timberwolves ML are negatively correlated, Minnesota doesn't actually rely on Gobert's offense to win games - it's more so about what he does on the defensive end. Bet365 lists this parlay at +675 odds, which is a nice way to boost your bet if you like the underdog to pull off a Game 1 upset.
💵 Timberwolves vs. Spurs SGP picks
- Rudy Gobert Under 8.5 points
- Timberwolves ML
Best odds: +675 via bet365 (0.15u -> 1u)
π‘ More NBA expert picks tonight
- NBA player props tonight
- 76ers vs. Knicks player props
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs player props
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 158.5-177-4.5 | -10 units β | -2.9% β |
| Player props | 141-123-4 | -7.92 units β | -2.5% β |
| Parlays | 13.5-49-0.5 | -1.2 units β | -6.2% β |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units β | -13.1% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50.5-51-0.5 | +7.03 units β | 9.1% β |
| Player props | 42-24 | +11.61 units β | 18.4% β |
| Parlays | 5.5-22-0.5 | -2.19 units β | -27% β |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units β | -52.5% β |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units β | -4.1% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Timberwolves vs. Spurs: NBA Playoffs Game 1 strategy
I would recommend focusing on what you have seen these teams already do against other opponents in the playoffs, rather than how they performed against one another in the regular season. Itβs going to be hard for these teams - especially the Timberwolves, who have had less time off - to drastically change game plans from one round to another. That may happen by Game 3, but right now we will likely see more of the same from both coaching staffs. Thereβs no need to think outside the box just yet.
π Timberwolves vs. Spurs injuries: Game 1
Injury report last updated at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) - out
- Ayo Dosunmu (calf) - out
- Anthony Edwards (knee) - questionable
Spurs
- Carter Bryant (foot) - questionable
πΊ How to watch Timberwolves vs. Spurs: West semifinals - Game 1
- Date: Monday, May 4
- Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Frost Bank Center (San Antonio)
- TV: NBCSN/Peacock
- Spread: Spurs -9.5
- Total: 219.5
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +300 | Spurs -340
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