⚾ Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, May 10

Today’s Mother’s Day MLB slate kicks off with an early 12:10 p.m. ET first pitch (Peacock) from loanDepot Park in Miami as the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins play the rubber game of a three-game series. The starting pitching matchup is between Cade Cavalli and Sandy Alcantara, with the Marlins listed as -135 betting favorites. 

My Nationals vs. Marlins prediction backs the Over in a game where two starting pitchers have been prone to rocky outings this season. That pairs nicely with the best of my MLB picks of Alcantara to stay under his projected strikeout total, but I’m backing a Marlins slugger to go deep given Alcantara’s solid home run track record against Washington.

⚾ Nationals vs. Marlins picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 6.19 units

🏆 Who will win Nationals vs. Marlins?

The Nationals are 1-6 in Cavalli’s last seven starts. Thus, I expect Miami to earn a win with Alcantara toeing the rubber, as he looks to increase his trade value as one of the most coveted starting pitchers likely to be dealt at some point this season.

Score prediction: Marlins 7, Nationals 4

💰 Nationals vs. Marlins prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-106)

Not only is Washington 1-6 in Cavalli’s last seven starts, but it has allowed 54 runs in those six losses.

Cavalli has recorded more than 12 outs in just half of his eight starts overall, which continues to put stress on a bullpen that entered the weekend having thrown the most innings in the majors, while also ranking 28th in xERA and FIP, and dead-last in K/9 rate.

Meanwhile, Washington’s offense was a big reason for a solid 8-4 12-game stretch following Friday’s series-opening win, as it averaged 5.0 runs per game in that span.

🔥 Best Nationals vs. Marlins player prop bet

Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125)

Sandy Alcantara has been prone to blow-up starts this year, as he’s allowed seven or more runs twice, bringing his career total to nine such starts.

I’m selling high on Alcantara’s solid career numbers against current Nationals hitters (.215/.236/.248 slash line in 65 at-bats), as this year’s offense is much more explosive than those of the past.

After averaging six strikeouts per game over his first three starts, Alcantara hasn’t topped four strikeouts in three of the previous five. And his 5.9 career K/9 rate against Washington makes the Nationals one of just four teams he doesn’t have at least a 6.0 K/9 rate against, while also being his peskiest NL East opponent in terms of contact rate.

💣 Nationals vs. Marlins home run prediction

Xavier Edwards to hit a home run (+1600)

Washington’s pitching staff has allowed the highest HR/9 rate (1.43) while Miami’s is the fourth-lowest, so that has me looking to a Marlins slugger to go deep.

Cade Cavalli is much more exploitable from the left-side of the plate, as he has allowed a .380 batting average and .951 OPS to left-handed batters, and a .194/.320/.242 slash line to righties. Meanwhile, Xavier Edwards ranks eighth in batting average and 23rd in OPS, with similar slash line numbers from both sides of the plate.

Plenty more home runs should be in Edwards’ future like the 822 feet of four-baggers he's hit in the first two games of this series, as his xSLG has jumped 103 points and his hard-hit rate has seen an 8.2% increase from last season.

🚀 Nationals vs. Marlins same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work to achieve the same goal, especially if Washington's offense does its part in the scoring and helping to contribute to a short outing from Alcantara. Given that Edwards has just four home runs on the season, I am swapping my home run wagers for him to finish with at least one RBI, as that still helps the Over cash, and he has an RBI in three of the last four games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Nationals vs. Marlins: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Given Cavalli's poor track record of leading his team to just two wins in eight starts, I wouldn't put anyone off backing Miami's moneyline odds, especially since they're a reasonable -140 price (58.33% implied odds) at the high end of the market.

And while Cavalli has only allowed one home run in opponents' at-bats, I'm playing the odds with a Marlins slugger to go deep off of Washington's pitching staff in general (potentially a late-game home run off the bullpen) given its much higher penchant of giving up home runs than Miami's (Alcantara has allowed a home run in just two of eight starts himself).

📊 Live Nationals vs. Marlins odds

Miami opened anywhere from -134 to -140 moneyline favorites at our best sports betting sites. But I expect the line to move in its favor given that a big name in Alcantara is on the mound, and that it has already attracted 62% of early wagers.

The O/U has held firm at 8.5 across the market, but may not do so for long as the early wagers are 2/1 in favor of the Over.

📈 Nationals vs. Marlins betting trends

🚑 Nationals vs. Marlins injuries

📺 How to watch Nationals vs. Marlins

• Date: Sunday, May 10
• First pitch: 12:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: loanDepot Park (Miami)
• Streaming: Peacock
• Nationals starter: Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.15 ERA)
• Marlins starter: Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 4.01 ERA)