⚾ Mets vs. Dodgers Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 15)
It's Shohei Ohtani vs. Clay Holmes tonight at Dodger Stadium, and we're diving into the Mets vs. Dodgers win probability before first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Our prediction market apps are all over the Dodgers to win their third straight (65% chance) and sweep the series. Regardless of the price, we're rolling with Los Angeles while also taking a shot at a NRFI with two quality arms who own each respective lineup. We'll find some home run hitters along the way, too.
➡️ Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for the 2026 season.
🏆 Who will win Mets vs. Dodgers? Live MLB win probability
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
With close to $400,000 in trading volume, the Dodgers have remained steady favorites through the last few days, ranging from 55% to where we are now at 66%, reaching a high point of 70% at one point before contracts started coming in on New York. The Mets did open as heavy favorites before it was known that Ohtani would be starting for Los Angeles.
This is fairly priced, simply put, as the Mets' bat have gone ice-cold. They've scored one run over their last 29 innings, including just seven hits in their series against Los Angeles. It doesn't get any easier with Ohtani on the mound, either, as New York owns just a .185 xBA against the right-hander and is being struck out at a 36% rate.
My prediction: Dodgers win. If you want to get more bang for your buck, trade "yes" for Los Angeles to win by more than 1.5 runs. At 48 cents, you'll be getting a bargain as Ohtani will continue to limit one of the worst offenses in baseball.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💣 Who will hit a home run in Mets vs. Dodgers
There's a reason why Kalshi is giving Ohtani a 26% chance to hit a home run - we all know he's one of the more perennial long ball hitters in baseball.
However, I'm zoning in on Kyle Tucker, who's trading at 12 cents. He's the only hitter in the Dodgers' lineup who's already taken Clay Holmes yard, and owns a .308 xBA and the highest xSLG on Los Angeles against the Mets starter.
Looking for a bomb from New York? Look no further than Bo Bichette, who's 2-for-8 against Ohtani with a home run, which doesn't include his Game 7 heroics when he was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. He's trading at just nine cents and is undoubtedly the best value on the market.
My prediction: Kyle Tucker to hit a home run. While his splits are pretty even, he does have more power going up against righties over his career. It's a perfect time for him to hit his second of the season. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Andrew Brennan.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Mets vs. Dodgers?
The chances of a run being scored in the first inning started out more favorable at 56% before plunging to as low as 43%. There's been a slight rebound since then, but the probability in a market with just over $53,000 in trading volume still rests at 46%. This means we have a 54% chance of a NRFI.
With Holmes taking on Ohtani, we won't be seeing any runs in the first, which is why this specific matchup is part of my best NRFI bets today. The Mets right-hander has kept the dangerous Dodgers lineup to an xBA under .200, including a combined 2-for-14 from Freddie Freeman, Ohtani, and Kyle Tucker.
On the flip side, the Dodgers' ace hasn't given up a run all season and draws a favorable matchup against a struggling Mets lineup that's managed just one run over its last 29 innings. It hasn't been pretty for New York this year - back the quick three outs.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. The Mets simply can't hit right now, and Holmes is going to do just enough to get us our three outs in the opening frame.
📊 Mets vs. Dodgers win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | 35% | 71% | ↓ 34% |
| Dodgers | 65% | 29% | ↑ 36% |
📺 How to watch Mets vs. Dodgers
- Date: Wednesday, April 15
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Mets starter: Clay Holmes (2-1, 1.50 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Shohei Ohtani (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
Related Articles
