⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Wednesday, April 15
We had another profitable day betting big flies yesterday, and I say let's keep the train rolling with my three best home run predictions today.
For my first bet, I'm going with a player who can't stop hitting nukes for his new team. Then I go to a game that featured our home run win yesterday, and I'm once again fading Houston Astros pitching.
Finally, I go back to the well for the third straight day on a player who's due for a homer in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly ballparks.
I've parlayed the three bets for a +10570 lotto ticket, as we look for our first sweep of the young season.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 15
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β1.68u | Second in MLB in home runs with seven |
| Mickey Moniak home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.33u β 1.72u | Has five homers in just 37 at-bats |
| Corey Seager home run (+325 via bet365) | 0.33u β 1.4u | Has elite home run projection for third straight day |
Total wagered: 1 units | Max profit: 3.8 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Brandon Lowe home run (+410)
Brandon Lowe has made an incredible first impression on Pittsburgh Pirates fans after joining the team this past offseason. He's already up to seven home runs this season, and he's hit one in back-to-back games.
Lowe and the Pirates once again have a great pitching matchup today against Jake Irvin, who absolutely stinks and gives up homers for fun. As a result, Lowe has the second-best home run projection of any player today, behind only Aaron Judge.
Based on it, we're getting nearly 60% +EV on this through these +410 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Trust the process
We've finally begun to right the ship when it comes to home run bets, and it's proof that sometimes you just need to trust that variance will work its way back the other way as long as you trust the process.
π₯ More home run picks today
Mickey Moniak home run (+390)
I bet on Hunter Goodman for the Colorado Rockies yesterday and he came through with a homer in his first AB. I'm once again targeting Astros pitching today, and I'm rocking with Mickey Moniak.
Moniak is already up to five homers despite starting the season on the IL, and he and the Rockies take on Spencer Arrighetti, who's given up a ton of homers during his MLB career.
Based on Moniak's home run projections today, we're getting better than 28% +EV on this.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm parlaying my three home run bets together and I'm putting $10 on them (or 0.08 units) at DraftKings. The most important thing to remember with these home run parlays is to limit your wager size. I know it may seem enticing to put more money on them because you see the potential profit, but these +9966 odds represent just a 0.99% implied probability that this hits. Would you gamble a bunch of money on anything in life that has less than a 1% chance of happening?
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Brandon Lowe (+401)
- Mickey Moniak (+412)
- Corey Seager (+316)
Best odds: +10570 via DraftKings (0.08u -> 8.54u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks have been tracked since March 25.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-104 | -20.82 units β | -31.6% β |
| Home run picks | 8-46 | -4.47 units β | -26.1% β |
| Parlays | 1-23 | -1.25 units β | -50.4% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I wager 0.33 units ($42) on my of home run bets that meet multiple criteria. First, the average projection across two models needs to be at least 0.275. Second, the bet needs to be at least 25% +EV. Third, I would like to see either a plus pitching matchup or the game being played at a hitter-friendly ballpark, or, preferably, both.
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