Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Picks & Prop Bets for Thursday

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners combined to hit eight home runs last night, which hopefully paved the way for another power surge for the two-game LCS slate and our best home run predictions today. 

Blue Jays righty Max Scherzer is scheduled to make his 26th postseason start and his 31st playoff appearance. But since he has not pitched since Sept. 24 after having been left off the team’s ALDS roster, his long layoff has me targeting a Seattle Mariners slugger as the centerpiece of my home run MLB picks.

Freddie Freeman, Alejandro Kirk, Jorge Polanco, and Julio Rodriguez make up my home run four-pack. If all of them homer, the four-leg $10 parlay would net over $14,000 in profits.

💰 Best home run predictions today: Oct. 16

MLB home run predictions for Thursday; MLB odds subject to change.

• Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers (+540 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays (+750 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners (+435 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Julio Rodriguez, CF, Mariners (+402 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

💣 Best home run pick today

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⚾  Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners (+435) ⭐⭐⭐  

Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco has hit three home runs and recorded eight RBI this postseason. The three home runs are the third-most in a single postseason run in franchise history, while the eight RBI are tied for the third-most.

Entering Game 3, Polanco had driven in the go-ahead run in three consecutive postseason games, making him one of five players in MLB history with such a streak. But his clutch genes date back to the regular season, as his +1.76 clutch leader rating in the regular season, per FanGraphs, was the highest of any position player.

Polanco is 2-for-8 in his career against Scherzer, with one of those hits being a home run. Scherzer is also coming off his first regular season, in which he posted a 2.0 HR/9 rate, and his 37.1% fly-ball rate was well above his previous career-high of 33.6% in 2013. 

Scherzer’s HR/9 rate ballooned to 2.9 over his last six starts, which is dangerous when facing a Mariners team that has scored 20 of its 36 runs (55.6%) of its runs this postseason via the long ball.

Polanco is only likely to get at most two at-bats against Scherzer, given that he has not pitched in three weeks. But Toronto’s bullpen has also been shaky, and entered Game 3 with a 6.35 ERA through the first six playoff games.   

Polanco’s best home run implied odds are 20% through Caesars’ +200 odds. But the best return on a winning $10 wager is through DraftKings’ +435 odds, which would net $43.50 in profits if he homers.

🚀 Best home run parlay today

Use our parlay calculator to get the best odds for any MLB parlay.