Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Picks & Prop Bets for Thursday

My best home run predictions tonight have four teams to choose from as both the ALCS and NLCS continue on Thursday.

The Dodgers' Freddie Freeman and Mariners' Jorge Polanco highlight my home run MLB picks, with the latter facing Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer after a long layoff for the right-hander. If all four of my picks homer, the four-leg $10 parlay would net over $14,000 in profits.

💰 Best home run predictions tonight: Oct. 16

MLB home run predictions for Thursday; MLB odds subject to change.

• Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers (+540 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays (+750 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners (+435 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Julio Rodriguez, CF, Mariners (+402 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

💣 Best home run pick tonight

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⚾ Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners (+435) ⭐⭐⭐  

Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco has hit three home runs and recorded eight RBI this postseason. The three home runs are the third-most in a single postseason run in franchise history, while the eight RBI are tied for the third-most.

Entering Game 3, Polanco had driven in the go-ahead run in three consecutive postseason games, making him one of five players in MLB history with such a streak. But his clutch genes date back to the regular season, as his +1.76 clutch leader rating in the regular season, per FanGraphs, was the highest of any position player.

Polanco is 2-for-8 in his career against Scherzer, with one of those hits being a home run. Scherzer is also coming off his first regular season, in which he posted a 2.0 HR/9 rate, and his 37.1% fly-ball rate was well above his previous career-high of 33.6% in 2013. 

Scherzer’s HR/9 rate ballooned to 2.9 over his last six starts, which is dangerous when facing a Mariners team that has scored 20 of its 36 runs (55.6%) of its runs this postseason via the long ball.

Polanco is only likely to get at most two at-bats against Scherzer, given that he has not pitched in three weeks. But Toronto’s bullpen has also been shaky, and entered Game 3 with a 6.35 ERA through the first six playoff games.

Polanco’s best home run implied odds are 20% through Caesars’ +200 odds. But the best return on a winning $10 wager is through DraftKings’ +435 odds, which would net $43.50 in profits if he homers.

Our Josh Goldberg also likes Polanco tonight, backing him to go Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI in his best Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props.

🚀 Best home run parlay tonight

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