MLB Home Run Derby Predictions: Can Schwarber Be the Hometown Hero?
The annual festival of dingers is nearly upon us, and we're diving in with our Home Run Derby predictions.
Some significant pop is spread throughout the field, including MLB home run leader and hometown hero Kyle Schwarber. His Philadelphia Phillies teammate Bryce Harper will be under the homer spotlight too, along with New York Yankees fast-rising masher Ben Rice.
Let's break down the rest of the field and make a prediction for who takes the crown this year. It all begins at 8 p.m. ET on Monday from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (Netflix).
💥 Home Run Derby field 2026
We're still waiting on the full field to be named, though it's close to being complete. And once that happens, Home Run Derby odds will promptly surface from the best sports betting sites.
For now, here are the known participants and some key stats, some of which come via Baseball Savant.
| Player | 💣 Home runs (as of July 10) | 📏 Longest home run in 2026 | 📝 Key stat to know |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 32 | 460 ft | Sits first in air pull rate leaguewide at 35.2%. |
| Bryce Harper (Phillies) | 20 | 457 ft | OPS at Citizens Bank is .924, compared to .819 on the road. |
| Ben Rice (Yankees) | 25 | 433 ft | Boasts the second-best home run/fly ball ratio (28.9%). |
| Jordan Walker (Cardinals) | 21 | 459 ft | Sits fifth MLB-wide in average exit velocity (94.3 mph). |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 26 | 463 ft | Achieves success through his 100th percentile bat speed. |
| Jac Caglianone (Royals) | 23 | 444 ft | Leads the field in average home run distance (419 feet). |
| Willson Contreras (Red Sox) | 20 | 449 ft | His .525 expected slugging sits 15th in MLB. |
📈 Home Run Derby prediction
Head over to our MLB picks for more Home Run Derby and All-Star Game picks.
Kyle Schwarber to win
Schwarber, who leads MLB with 32 homers, could win this derby anywhere. After all, hitting a baseball incredibly hard is much of the game here, and his hard-hit percentage of 53.8% sits ninth leaguewide.
The other major element is repeatedly squaring up a whole lot of batting practice meatballs. Schwarber can certainly check that box, as he sits seventh MLB-wide in barrels.
But the comforts of home carry significant value for a lefty masher who pulls everything and anything. He sits tied for fourth in pull percentage at 55.3%.
Citizens Bank Park is the eighth-most homer-friendly venue leaguewide, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. Schwarber boasts a 1.044 OPS at home, where he's hit 19 dingers, as opposed to an .843 on the road.
🗒️ 2026 Home Run Derby rules, format
MLB will use the same format for the 2026 Home Run Derby as it has the past few years. Here's how it works:
First round: Each of the eight participants gets three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many home runs as possible. After that, they get three untimed outs to tack on more homers until a third out is recorded. The top four move on.
Second round: The four highest scorers from Round 1 are seeded and face off - No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. The same timing and pitch limits apply, with the winners advancing to the finals.
Final round: The last two players get two minutes or 27 pitches to hit as many home runs as they can, followed by a bonus round of three outs.
Extras: Each player can use one 45-second timeout per round before bonus time. If a batter launches a 425-foot homer in bonus time, they earn an extra out.
Tiebreakers: In Round 1, ties are broken by longest home run. In later rounds, a 60-second swing-off decides the winner, with additional three-swing faceoffs if necessary.
🏆 Past Home Run Derby winners
| Year | Winner | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cal Raleigh | Junior Caminero |
| 2024 | Teoscar Hernandez | Bobby Witt Jr. |
| 2023 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Randy Arozarena |
| 2022 | Juan Soto | Julio Rodriguez |
| 2021 | Pete Alonso | Trey Mancini |
| 2019 | Pete Alonso | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| 2018 | Bryce Harper | Kyle Schwarber |
| 2017 | Aaron Judge | Miguel Sano |
| 2016 | Giancarlo Stanton | Todd Frazier |
| 2015 | Todd Frazier | Joc Pederson |
| 2014 | Yoenis Cespedes | Todd Frazier |
| 2013 | Yoenis Cespedes | Bryce Harper |
*2020 event canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
📺 How to watch the Home Run Derby
- Date: Monday, July 13
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia)
- TV/Streaming: Netflix
❓ Home Run Derby FAQs
When is the 2026 Home Run Derby?
The 2026 Home Run Derby will take place Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The event begins at 8 p.m. ET.
Who is the Home Run Derby favorite?
We'll know the favorite soon once some of the best MLB betting sites start to post odds.
Who won the Home Run Derby last year?
Seattle Mariners slugger Cal Raleigh won the event in 2025.
Who is participating in the Home Run Derby?
So far we know that Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone, Willson Contreras, and Jordan Walker are participating.
Where can I bet on the Home Run Derby?
Many of the best sports betting apps will carry 2026 Home Run Derby odds, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM.
Related Articles
