⚾ Guardians vs. Athletics Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 3)

A series sweep will be up for grabs this afternoon, and Cleveland is narrowly favored to make that happen.

The Guardians vs. Athletics win probability from the prediction market apps shows Cleveland as the favorite to take all three games in this series and win the club's fourth straight contest.    

A young and rising lefty in Parker Messick will try to spearhead that effort on the mound for Cleveland, while the Athletics counter with the homer-prone Aaron Civale.

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🏆 Who will win Guardians vs. Athletics? Live MLB win probability

There's been wild back-and-forth movement in this market, in part surely due to the Guardians' equally roller-coaster ways recently.

An inconsistent team isn't far removed from a stretch in which it lost six of eight games. But now Cleveland has taken three straight, including a resounding 14-6 win over the Athletics yesterday to secure a series victory at worst.

There's been yo-yo movement as an extension of that up-and-down play. The Guardians have gone from a 44% underdog in this market to a 54% favorite, then back down to a 47% underdog before finally shifting to the 52% favorite, all over the span of four days amid just above $63,300 in trading volume.

The presence of Messick on the mound today for Cleveland is no doubt driving that upward movement, too. Messick is embarking on his first full major-league season as a starter, and the quickly emerging southpaw has been dominant while allowing over two earned runs in just one of his six starts thus far.

He'll face an Athletics lineup that struggles against lefties and has posted a .652 OPS in that split (22nd).

My prediction: Guardians win. Messick's brilliance alone will very likely be enough. His fastball-changeup combination has been lethal, resulting in barrel and hard-hit percentages that both sit in the 93rd percentile or above leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Guardians vs. Athletics?

There's immense power potential from the Athletics' lineup, and especially through Nick Kurtz, who's getting a 20% chance to go deep today amid just over $18,500 in trading volume.

However, it's difficult to trust even Kurtz against Messick, despite the thump that led to 36 homers last year. Messick allows so very little quality contact with his hard-hit rate that rests at just 26.7%. Opposing batters are also slugging just .231 against his changeup.

So we look to the other dugout and a team set to face Civale, who's not too far removed from surrendering 29 homers in 2024, and still 16 across 102 innings last year. Dinger generosity is in the 31-year-old's blood, and that's especially true this season with his average exit velocity allowed that rests in just the eighth percentile.

Jose Ramirez is leading the market while getting a 22% chance of launching one, and he boasts an expected slugging percentage of .501 that's notably above his actual mark of .421.

My prediction: Jose Ramirez to hit a home run. As usual, Ramirez also isn't striking out often, which shows up in his 13.4% strikeout rate. He gives himself plenty of opportunities to take a healthy cut. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Guardians vs. Athletics?

We've seen a gradual increase in the probability of a first-inning run, as it's moved from 47% up to a high of 51% before shifting back down a little to 50%.

Doing damage in any inning is a steep challenge against Messick, who has posted three outings with one run or fewer allowed. But Civale is much more vulnerable, and he's not far removed from a stretch of eight earned runs given up across 10 innings.

Civale is part of a woeful Athletics pitching staff that's set to drag the team down and is currently ranked 26th MLB-wide with a 4.64 ERA. That's contributed greatly to the Athletics being one of the league's best YRFI teams with a 20-13 record (tied for sixth). They're also 10-5 at home, largely due to the welcoming offensive dimensions of Sutter Health Park

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Civale has also given up two first-inning runs over his past three starts.

📊 Guardians vs. Athletics win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Guardians vs. Athletics

• Date: Sunday, May 3
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Sutter Health Park (Sacramento)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Guardians starter: Parker Messick (3-0, 1.73 ERA)
• Athletics starter: Aaron Civale (2-1, 3.23 ERA)