⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Sunday, May 3
The Atlanta Braves and Colorado Rockies have already played two slugfests to open their three-game series at Coors Field. That’s why half of my four home run predictions today come from that game to take advantage of the altitude and hitter-friendly conditions, even if Spencer Strider is making his season debut for Atlanta.
My other MLB home run picks are focused around right-handed batters who are off to great starts to the season. I’m expecting Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Diaz to homer for the second time in this series, while Mike Trout continues to turn back the clock.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 3
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Moniak has been of the NL's hottest hitters over the last two weeks. |
| Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+725 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 1.81u | Diaz is getting hot again after a mid-season home run drought. |
| Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.23u | Albies has an eye-popping 1.059 OPS against southpaws. |
| Mike Trout to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Trout entered the weekend leading the league in runs scored (he has driven himself in 10 times with homers). |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.92 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+375)
Mickey Moniak entered this series amid a 14-game hit streak while batting .365 with six doubles and three home runs. He extended that streak with two hits in his first two at-bats in the series opener, including a towering 439-foot homer.
Spencer Strider recorded 15 strikeouts over 9 1/3 innings pitched in his final two rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett. But two of his worst three HR/9 rates have come in the last two seasons (2.0 and 1.4), and making his debut at Coors Field isn’t an easy way to get back into rhythm.
📡 SBR Edge: Homers in bunches
To end April, no MLB team had more multi-homer games than the Rockies (five), with Mickey Moniak responsible for three of those occurrences.
🔥 More home run picks today
Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+725)
Yandy Diaz started the season strong with an .856 OPS through 15 games. After cooling off with a 13-game homerless drought, he's belted two homers in the last five games. Diaz now looks for his first home run against Tyler Mahle after hitting safely in three of his first four at-bats in this head-to-head matchup.
Mahle hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 12 innings (spanning two starts), but he was also roughed up for four home runs in a road start against the Reds in mid-April. So while Mahle’s groundball rate is hovering around 50% (his best since his rookie season), he's one elevated pitch away from serving up a long ball to Diaz, whose expected slugging ranks in the 75th percentile.
Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+490)
Ozzie Albies entered this series amid a 12-game hitting streak, during which he batted .413 with eight extra-base hits. He has since extended that hitting streak to 14 (one shy of tying the longest hitting streak of his career), and Albies aims to continue his success against Kyle Freeland, against whom he's 11-for-24 with a 1.125 OPS.
Albies is in his better hitting split facing a southpaw, as he's slashing .382/.386/.673 against left-handed pitchers and .286/.360/.455 against righties.
Freeland has served up seven home runs with a .968 opponents’ OPS in 137 combined at-bats to current Braves hitters, making this one of several great value plays.
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+375)
Mike Trout has been flashing his old three-time AL MVP form often. His on-base percentage and OPS+ are his best since 2021, his slugging percentage is best since 2022, and his walk rate is on pace to be a career-high.
Trout showed his ability to catch fire earlier in the season, as his seven home runs and 17 RBI in a 16-game span were the most in the AL in that timeframe.
He's also entered the weekend as one of three players (minimum 100 plate appearances) with a .500 slugging percentage and more walks than strikeouts. The outfielder is just as likely to use that plate discipline to homer off of Clay Holmes or to wait it out while facing a Mets reliever.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Two of the four sluggers included in this home run parlay (Albies and Moniak) entered the weekend amid long hitting streaks, while flashing elite power numbers throughout. The wagers on Diaz and Trout are more based on confidence that the power they flashed in droves earlier this season will resurface in favorable matchups.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Mickey Moniak to hit a home run (+340)
- Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+710)
- Ozzie Albies to hit a home run (+490)
- Mike Trout to hit a home run (+330)
Best odds: +90319 via FanDuel (0.1u -> 90.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 65-81 | +24.58 units ✅ | +24.5% ✅ |
| Player props | 45-68 | +18.75 units ✅ | +27.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Earlier this week, the Milwaukee Brewers snapped a seven-game team home run drought, their longest since 1999. Those are the kinds of trends that catch my attention and impact my MLB home run prop wagering, as I would refrain from backing a Brewers slugger to homer in the short term even though I respect their offense's run-scoring capabilities.
Like always, I'm backing each of these four home run wagers with 0.25 units of my bankroll, which has proven successful while helping to generate nearly 19 units of profit among player prop wagers thus far this season.
It's also worth noting that I'm backing two players who received off days yesterday (Moniak and Diaz), so bettors should be sure to check that they're in today's starting lineup before placing their wagers.
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