Diamondbacks vs. Padres Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 6)

The Diamondbacks vs. Padres win probability from the prediction market apps shows significant movement, even though these two teams are similar in all the wrong ways.

The mediocre clubs enter tonight's clash with identical 44-45 records, a bland showing so far that's largely the product of putrid offensive production. That's especially true for San Diego and its inept hitting, as the team sits last in runs and OPS. But the Diamondbacks aren't much better.

It's a matchup that could come down to which uninspiring pitcher can earn the edge between the Padres' Walker Buehler and the Diamondbacks' Brandon Pfaadt.

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🏆 Who will win Diamondbacks vs. Padres? Live MLB win probability

There's been dramatic movement since this market opened, resulting in a switch in the favorite.

Arizona was initially getting a 59% win probability. But the Diamondbacks gradually sank, and they now sit all the way down at 47%, with the Padres moving from a low of 39% up to 54%. That swift switch has happened despite the Padres ending an eight-game losing streak just yesterday.

It's baffling considering the Padres averaged 3.4 runs per game during that span of awfulness. And it's a stretch when their typically reliable pitching sprung a gaping leak while allowing nine-plus earned runs in four outings.

The Diamondbacks now trot out Pfaadt, who was sent down last month in part to be stretched out and reestablish himself as a starter. His seventh-percentile barrel rate, according to Baseball Savant, still leaves much to be desired, and opposing hitters are teeing off on a sinker that comes with a .585 slugging percentage.

However, Pfaadt was given another soft landing spot last time out in a return to the rotation, and he held the San Francisco Giants' also poor offense (25th) to one earned run and only three hits across 5 1/3 innings.

My prediction: Diamondbacks win. Buehler's four-seamer isn't threatening to anyone, as it's getting pummeled for a .346 batting average allowed and 51.1% hard-hit rate.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

Manny Machado could finally be starting to emerge from his prolonged slumber, as he's belted two homers in July en route to a 1.034 OPS nearly a week into the month.

That makes him appealing while tied for the second-highest home run probability tonight at 17%. Similarly, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been coming around and has put up a .914 OPS over the past week after hitting four of his five home runs this season in June.

He's intriguing too as a bargain while getting a 14% probability, especially since Pfaadt is vulnerable to the long ball with a 1.7 HR/9. But it's easy to see why Ketel Marte sits atop the group at 20%.

Buehler will primarily try to get the switch-hitting Marte out while leaning on a fastball-cutter mix, as he does against most lefties. Marte, who has tallied 17 dingers, boasts an expected slugging percentage of .518 that's in the 93rd percentile. Zooming in further, his expected slugging also sits at .619 against fastballs.

My prediction: Ketel Marte to hit a home run. Marte has also launched more home runs this season as a lefty (10) than as a righty (seven). For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Diamondbacks vs. Padres?

It's a tale of two opposing tendencies tonight, with the Padres carrying MLB's best NRFI record by far at 58-31, and the Diamondbacks in 25th at 39-50.

The result has been a market that's essentially providing a shoulder shrug while hovering around a 50% chance of a first-inning score. The immense struggles of both offenses make backing an early run difficult. But your sweat level decreases a little bit once you remember Machado and Tatis have been rounding into form recently. The same is true to some extent with Jackson Merrill, who's gone deep twice in July already while putting up an .866 OPS thus far in the month.

The recent rise of those three sluggers makes the YRFI appealing, as does Corbin Carroll's effectiveness against cutters. He's put up a .615 slugging percentage against a pitch Buehler throws 30% of the time to lefties.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Buehler is also fresh off the Chicago Cubs destroying him for nine earned runs, three of which came in the first inning. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Diamondbacks vs. Padres win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Diamondbacks vs. Padres

• Date: Monday, July 6
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: FS1
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Diamondbacks starter: Brandon Pfaadt (1-1, 5.40 ERA)
• Padres starter: Walker Buehler (5-4, 4.61 ERA)