United States vs. Belgium Prediction: Best World Cup Picks at Kalshi (July 6)
The Stars and Stripes got incredible news on Sunday, as forward Florain Balogun will take the pitch for the Round of 16. Below, I explain how Balogun's presence affects my United States vs. Belgium prediction and highlight why the United States is undervalued in this contest.
The United States has a 53% win probability on prediction market apps, ahead of Monday's 8 p.m. ET match at Lumen Field in Seattle, and my World Cup best bets back the United States to survive a tightly contested game. The match will air on FOX and Telemundo and stream on FOX One.
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⚽ United States vs. Belgium predictions: Pick to win & player prop picks
See all of our experts' soccer picks for World Cup 2026.
| 💰 Best picks | 📊 Yes/no price | ⚖️ Volume (units) |
|---|---|---|
| United States advances | 53 cents | 2u -> 1.77u |
| United States in regulation | 37 cents | 1.5u -> 2.56u |
| Folarin Balogun anytime goalscorer | 40 cents | 1u -> 1.5u |
📈 Who will win United States vs. Belgium?
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Belgium has not been impressive at this World Cup. After low-scoring draws against Egypt and Iran, Belgium demolished a bad New Zealand team, then looked absolutely lifeless until the 86th minute against Senegal. The three goals on the scoreboard don't tell the full story, and I don't like Belgium's offense against a United States defense that has back-to-back shutouts with starters on the field.
Plus, the United States has been excellent at creating chances, scoring multiple goals in all four World Cup matches. With Balogun on the field, I'm simply taking the better team to advance.
Score prediction: USA 2 Belgium 1
💵 My best pick: Yes - United States in regulation (37 cents)
I'm putting more units on the United States to advance, but I think the price for this prop makes it the best play of the game. While Belgium is the best team the Americans have faced to this point, the Belgians' offensive struggles are a serious problem.
The Belgian defense has been mostly good, conceding just two goals in the group stage. However, Senegal missed four big chances against Belgium and still scored twice.
🦶 Who will score in United States vs. Belgium?
Follow all of our expert soccer analysis for World Cup 2026.
Folarin Balogun, F, United States (40%)
Balogun playing in this game is going to be controversial to many, but the fact remains that he's going to be on the pitch, and for this price, there's no reason not to back him. Balogun has scored three goals in three matches, despite just 1.25 expected goals, and he looked destined for more against Bosnia-Herzegovina had he not been sent off.
Belgium really struggled with Senegal's forwards. Senegal finished with 3.58 expected goals against Belgium, 1.60 of which belonged to forward Ismaila Sarr. Today they'll struggle with Balogun and Christian Pulisic, whose game we break down in our Christian Pulisic player props.
Best United States vs. Belgium goal-scorer pick: Folarin Balogun (40%)
💰️ More World Cup predictions today
Our daily World Cup predictions for Monday feature Gary Pearson's top plays for today's Round of 16 games.
🥅 Will both teams score in United States vs. Belgium?
Belgium's offense has not been great at this World Cup. That said, Belgium has offensive talent, and Romelu Lukaku has scored in back-to-back matches, with both goals coming after he entered as a sub. Even if the United States controls Belgium early, when Lukaku enters, I don't know if the United States can handle him. Yet, while I lean both teams to score, I wouldn't actually trade Yes.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (64 cents)
💡 How to trade on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to handicap BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop market across more than 7,000 matches.
📺 How to watch United States vs. Belgium
- Date: Monday, July 6
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
- TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
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