Phillies vs. Royals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Monday, July 6

In what could be one of his last starts before possibly starting the All-Star Game in front of his home crowd, Christopher Sanchez looks to lead the Philadelphia Phillies to a series victory over the Kansas City Royals.  My Phillies vs. Royals prediction calls for a lopsided victory for the Phillies, listed as a -210 betting favorite, behind a dominant effort from their starter. Opposing Sanchez on the mound is Kansas City’s Noah Cameron.  

I also take a flier on J.T. Realmuto with the last of my MLB picks to homer for the second time in the series. First pitch for this rubber match from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 2:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited).

⚾ Phillies vs. Royals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Royals?

Philadelphia is 10-2 in Sanchez’ last 12 starts, and I am expecting the All-Star southpaw to guide the surging Phillies to another big win over the last-place Royals.

Score prediction: Phillies 6, Royals 2

💰 Phillies vs. Royals prediction & best bet

Royals -1.5 (-120)

In Philadelphia’s only two losses in Sanchez’s 12 starts since April 30, the team was shut out. Otherwise, it has an overall plus-48 run differential over that span, with just two of the wins being by one run. That’s why I am comfortable laying the -1.5 runs, which the Royals have covered just four times in their last 11 games.

If shutting out the Phillies is seemingly the only way to beat them when Sanchez toes the rubber, I don’t expect Noah Cameron to be up to the task. The southpaw has allowed four-plus runs in four consecutive starts. 

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Royals player prop bet

Cristopher Sanchez Under 2.5 earned runs (-157)

Earlier this season, Sanchez broke Philadelphia’s 115-year-old scoreless innings streak. He had a four-start stretch of 32 scoreless innings with 36 strikeouts, making him one of three pitchers ever with that many strikeouts and innings pitched over a four-start scoreless streak.

After his last start Sanchez led the Majors in innings, K:BB ratio, GO/AO, quality starts, complete games, and games started, and was second in strikeouts and ERA. He generated 23 whiffs in holding the Pirates scoreless over seven innings pitched, which shouldn’t be overlooked considering they rank third in runs scored.

Sanchez had eight scoreless starts before July, making him one of four pitchers (the fifth total instance) with eight-plus scoreless starts that early in the season. He was also one of two pitchers since earned runs became official in 1912 to record a full month of a 0.00 ERA with 35 or more innings pitched.

💣 Phillies vs. Royals home run prediction

J.T. Realmuto to hit a home run (+710)

J.T. Realmuto hit just his sixth home run of the season in Saturday’s series opener. But he is also one of two current Phillies hitters with a home run in their career off Noah Cameron. Given that Kyle Schwarber is the other and that his best home run odds are +290 at bet365, I’m siding with Realmuto for more value.

Realmuto ranks in the top 20 in Phillies franchise history for home runs. He has logged a .346/.370/.808 slash line with three home runs in six career games at Kauffman Stadium. In fact, his 1.178 OPS there is the highest at any visiting ballpark where he played multiple games.

🚀 Phillies vs. Royals same-game parlay

If the Phillies are to win in convincing fashion and cover the -1.5 runs on the runline, it will likely come in what is a dominant performance from Sanchez. The southpaw's ERA is more than three runs higher on the road than at home, but I expect him to be motivated in what is one of his last showcases to earn the start in the All-Star Game over Jacob Misiorowski. To give this SGP a better chance of cashing, I am swapping Realmuto's home run wager for him to record a hit, as Cameron has a .298 OBA through nine home starts.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Phillies vs. Royals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I typically draw the line for backing MLB moneyline favorites at -160 odds before I look into their runline odds. With Philadelphia as high as -247 odds at DraftKings (carrying a 71.18% implied probability), I easily switched to the runline for better value.

Given that I like Philadelphia to win comfortably with Sanchez turning in another great outing, I also wouldn't put anyone off his -125 odds (55.56% implied odds) to record the win. And from a home run odds perspective, I was always going to look to a Phillies slugger, as Sanchez has the sixth-lowest HR/9 rate (0.62) among qualified starters.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Royals odds

The best MLB betting sites have a wide 51-cent gap between Philadelphia's shortest -196 moneyline odds at FanDuel and the -247 odds at the high end of the market at DraftKings. Sharp action must account for a lot of the 72% of the early wagers that have backed the Phillies, who have steamed up from an opening number of -175 to -210 at BetMGM. 

The total is currently at 8.5 only at bet365, with the rest of the market at 8. FanDuel was also at 8.5 before lowering to 8, while the O/U at DraftKings reached a market-wide low of 7.5 all the way from an opening number of 8.5 before returning to 8. As of early Monday morning, 57% of the wagers had backed the Over.

📈 Phillies vs. Royals betting trends

🚑 Phillies vs. Royals injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Royals

• Date: Monday, July 6
• First pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Cristopher Sanchez (10-3, 2.00 ERA)
• Royals starter: Noah Cameron (4-6, 4.95 ERA)