MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Monday, July 6

My best home run predictions today break down the best HR bets for today's MLB slate.
Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman reacts as he rounds the bases, and he's key to my home run predictions today.
Pictured: Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman reacts as he rounds the bases, and he's key to my home run predictions today. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn.
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I finished last week strong while riding Rafael Devers' hot bat to another dinger on Friday, and now carrying that momentum into the final week before the All-Star break comes with a greater challenge for my home run predictions today.

That's because we're facing an especially short eight-game Monday slate, leaving little margin for error. So with that in mind, let's turn to a trusted masher to lead off my MLB home run picks in the Rockies' Hunter Goodman.

He remains an inferno at the plate, and Goodman gets an especially juicy matchup tonight.


⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 6

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

πŸ’£ Home run pick πŸ’΅ Units πŸ“ Notes
Hunter Goodman home run (+225 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.45u Sits third in MLB with 27 homers.
Curtis Mead home run (+468 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.94u Third-year breakout slugger gets a chance to keep thriving against sinkers.
Rafael Devers home run (+410 via DraftKings) 0.20u β†’ 0.82u Kevin Gausman put up a 6.47 ERA in June.

Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.21 units

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πŸ’£ Best home run predictions & odds today

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+225)

Goodman has already belted 27 dingers, putting him just four shy of his total for all of last season, and it's July 6. The catcher is coming off a sizzling June too with a .993 OPS, and that's more than carried into July, as he's posted a 1.348 early in the month.

Now Goodman gets to face the Dodgers' Eric Lauer, the highly vulnerable lefty whose HR/9 this season sits at 2.2. He has little velocity to speak of with a fastball averaging 90.9 mph, yet Lauer throws that pitch 44.4% of the time.

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

📡 SBR Edge: Pull power

Goodman isn't at all hiding what he's trying to do. Yes, his strikeout rate is high, but he's trading that off for significant pull-side power, and Goodman is pulling the ball in the air 30.9% of the time.


πŸ”₯ More home run predictions today

Home run pick: Curtis Mead (+468)

Curtis Mead has already clubbed 14 long balls after recording five across his first three seasons combined as a part-time player. He's fresh off the month of June too, when Mead registered six of those deep shots, and now the rising star gets a matchup ideally suited to his strength.

The infielder will spend a chunk of his evening against the Houston Astros' Mike Burrows. He comes with wayward command and a 3.3 BB/9, and Burrows is tied for MLB's seventh-most homers allowed (19). Burrows utilizes his sinker as the hurler's most-used pitch against righties like Mead, who's posting a .592 expected slugging percentage against that offering.

  • Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

🤑 More MLB player props for Monday

Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today if you're looking to cash in more to start the week.

Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+410)

Let's tab Devers again, as it's difficult to resist his matchup against the recent version of Kevin Gausman.

The Blue Jays' veteran recovered during his last start, but it's tough to read too much into an outing against the lowly New York Mets. He put up a scary bad 6.47 ERA during June, which included an OPS allowed of .879. That's far higher than his successful start to this season, which featured an OPS surrendered of .592 in March and April.

Gausman has achieved significant success in the past despite being essentially a two-pitch pitcher, largely because of his lethal splitter. But Devers has been seeing that pitch well, with his .400 batting average and .733 slugging against it this season.

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MLB.TV

πŸš€ Best home run parlay picks today

💵 Best MLB home run parlay today

  • Hunter Goodman home run (+225)
  • Curtis Mead home run (+468)
  • Rafael Devers home run (+410)

Best odds: +9546 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 1.9u)


πŸ’΅ My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.

Bet type Record Net profit ROI
Overall 55-149-2 0.07 units βœ… 0.1% βœ…
Home run picks 31-99-0 -0.21 units βŒ 0.01% βŒ
HR Parlays 1-35 0.72 units βœ… 1.03% βœ