Storm vs. Sparks Prediction: WNBA Picks for Monday, July 6
The Seattle Storm (5-17) and Los Angeles Sparks (8-10) clash tonight at 10 p.m. ET at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles (USA Network).
Both teams are outside the current WNBA championship odds playoff picture. The Sparks, who are in the hunt, are a 3.5-point betting favorite while missing their best player. Still, I'm siding with the home team in my Storm vs. Sparks prediction.
🏀 Storm vs. Sparks prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Sparks -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 1u → 0.95u | Seattle is 1-9 straight up and 3-7 ATS as the road team this year. |
| First-quarter Over 44.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.45u | The Sparks rank 15th in first-quarter defensive rating, while the Storm are 13th. |
| Ariel Atkins Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.8u | Atkins' usage actually drops by 3% when playing without Plum this year. |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.2 units
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🏆 Who will win Storm vs. Sparks?
Although the Sparks remain without Kelsey Plum, I don't expect them to have any problem dispatching the Storm in Los Angeles. I predict Los Angeles to earn a 6-point win on Monday. Seattle is 1-9 on the road this year, posting the WNBA-worst net rating (-16.9). This young Storm team has been an auto-fade in this spot for a reason.
Score prediction: Sparks 90, Storm 84
💰 Storm vs. Sparks prediction & best bet
Sparks -3.5 (-105)
BetMGM offers a nice value for bettors looking to back the Sparks' spread. Not only is the line -3.5, but the -105 vig is an outlier. Pinnacle is holding steady at -4.
Given my projection, I'd back the Sparks at -4 or better. This is a good opportunity for the Sparks to pick up their first win since Plum's injury, as they've fallen short the past two games despite averaging 92 points.
Seattle has struggled on the road. The Storm are 3-7 against the spread as the away team, failing to cover by an average of 5.9 points.
🔥 Best Storm vs. Sparks player prop bet
Ariel Atkins Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Theoretically, Los Angeles guard Ariel Atkins should have a bigger role without Plum. However, that hasn't really been the case.
In the six games without Plum, Atkins' usage has actually decreased by 3%. She's averaged 8.2 points, two assists, and 2.8 rebounds in those matchup, failing to clear this combo line three different times.
Another aspect for why I like this Under is that Atkins' minutes have been down of late. She's played 36 minutes across the past two outings.
With this line trading at 15.5 across the board, it's worth grabbing the deal at DraftKings.
🚀 Storm vs. Sparks same-game parlay
I'm expecting the Sparks to start in front and stay there against a Storm side that has struggled to keep pace away from home. DraftKings offers odds of +335 for Los Angeles to win the first quarter and the full game, along with my favorite player prop. If the Sparks start strong enough, there is a chance that Atkins doesn't have to play much toward the end of the contest. Not a bad game script to count on.
💵 Storm vs. Sparks SGP picks
- Sparks ML (-175)
- Sparks first quarter moneyline ML (-135)
- Ariel Atkins Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Best odds: +335 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 0.33u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 9.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50-62 | +6.02 units ✅ | 7.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 18-13 | +3.56 units ✅ | 11.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-25 | -1.29 units ❌ | -45.9% ❌ |
📊 Live Storm vs. Sparks odds
📺 How to watch Storm vs. Sparks
- Date: Monday, July 6
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
- TV: USA
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