⚾ Braves vs. Dodgers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 8
The Atlanta Braves bring the best record in baseball into a possible NLCS preview in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Atlanta sends ace Chris Sale to the mound to oppose Emmet Sheehan, with first pitch from Dodger Stadium scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). The Dodgers are -120 betting favorites.
My Braves vs. Dodgers prediction backs Atlanta amid its hot start with Sale, while Matt Olson continues to challenge Shohei Ohtani for early NL MVP frontrunner status. And given that Los Angeles has been in a power drought recently, I’m backing another red-hot Braves slugger as my best bet to go deep as part of my MLB picks.
⚾ Braves vs. Dodgers picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Braves ML (+100 via DraftKings) | 1u → 1u | Atlanta, not Los Angeles, has looked like the frontrunner to win the pennant thus far |
| Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+150 via bet365) | 1u → 1.5u | Olson ranks in the top four in nearly every statistical offensive category |
| Drake Baldwin to hit a HR (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.03u | Baldwin is massively outperforming his Rookie of the Year campaign from last season |
Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.53 units
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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Dodgers?
The Braves are on pace for 111 wins, and I expect them to take this series opener with their most reliable starting pitcher toeing the rubber.
Score prediction: Braves 5, Dodgers 3
💰 Braves vs. Dodgers prediction & best bet
Braves ML (+100)
Atlanta is 6-1 in Chris Sale’s seven starts, while outscoring opponents 44-12. It’s held the opposition to one or fewer runs in five of those outings.
Sale has had success against current Dodgers hitters, limiting them to a .169/.235/.341 slash line in 65 combined at-bats. He’s been able to work around seven of the 11 hits going for extra bases, helped by a 29.2% strikeout rate.
Atlanta’s deadly combination of ranking second in the majors in OPS and second in the National League in ERA, that makes it a tough opponent each day.
📡 SBR Edge: A near historic start
Had Atlanta won its rubber match against Seattle on Wednesday, it would have won 11 of its first 12 series, something that's been done just once in the last 25 years (2001 Mariners).
🔥 Best Braves vs. Dodgers player prop bet
Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+150)
Matt Olson has a chance to improve his MVP resume while going head-to-head against his top competitor, Shohei Ohtani.
Earlier this week, Olson became the 14th active player with 300-plus career home runs. Since the start of 2021, he ranks first in games played, fifth in home runs, second in RBI, and eighth in slugging. Among those with a minimum of 100 plate appearances this season, he entered Thursday tied for third in home runs, fourth in slugging and OPS+, and leading the league in RBI and total bases.
Olson is tough to pitch anywhere, specifically inside, as he has the sixth-highest slugging percentage on inside pitches since the start of 2023 (min. 200 PA). He should get the best of his matchups with Sheehan, as the righty has allowed a .977 OPS to left-handed batters this season.
💣 Braves vs. Dodgers home run prediction
Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+410)
Drake Baldwin hasn’t minded life away from Truist Park, as his OPS in road games is 69 points higher than at home.
Baldwin has a .911 OPS with two home runs in the last seven days, and he has increased his OPS+ from 126 in last year’s Rookie of the Year-winning season to 150 this year.
All six of Sheehan’s home runs allowed this year have come to left-handed batters, in just 25 more at-bats than right-handed hitters have had. He is easily the team’s worst starting pitcher in terms of xSLG (.443 is up massively from .346 last year), while Baldwin is slugging .659 or better against two of the three most common pitches he’s faced this year (fastball and slider).
💥 More batters to back
I'm also locked in on four other sluggers to go yard today, as part of my best home run predictions.
🚀 Braves vs. Dodgers same-game parlay
All three legs of this same-game parlay work in cohesion to support a Braves road victory. It would take quite the offensive outburst from Atlanta to have both Olson drive in a run and Baldwin to homer. Therefore, I'm swapping my Baldwin home run play for him to simply cross the plate at least once in 10 of his previous 16 games played.
💵 Braves vs. Dodgers SGP picks
- Braves ML (+100)
- Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBIs (+150)
- Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 runs (+110)
Best odds: +950 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.95u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 73-91 | +26.84 units ✅ | +23.9% ✅ |
| Game picks | 23-15 | +6.31 units ✅ | +8.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 50-76 | +20.53 units ✅ | +27.5% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Braves vs. Dodgers: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I toyed with the idea of backing Atlanta's team total Over 3.5, given that I like Olson's chances of driving in a run and am playing Baldwin to hit a home run. But Los Angeles still owns the NL's best ERA, and I want to keep my options open for the Braves to win in a multitude of ways, even a pitcher's duel.
In addition, Sale has earned a decision in each of his seven starts, so I wouldn't put anyone off backing his odds to record a win (+180 via bet365), especially since I'm predicting the Braves to win outright.
📊 Live Braves vs. Dodgers odds
Neither of these teams played yesterday, so any line movement since last night is simply due to betting action and not a result of a previous day's action. Any line movement towards Los Angeles (like BetMGM moving from an opening number of -115 to -118) is likely a result of sharp action, considering the underdog Braves have received 59% of the early wagers.
DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites with an O/U of 8.5, as the rest of the market is at 8 (some lowered from an opening number of 8.5). That line movement seems justified after early betting splits are nearly 2/1 in favor of the Under, and both teams are profitable to that side of the total.
📈 Braves vs. Dodgers betting trends
| Braves | Statistic | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| 26-12 | W-L record | 23-14 |
| 26-12 | Run line record | 18-19 |
| 17-18-3 | O/U record | 17-20 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 3.22 | Team ERA | 3.16 |
| .270 | Team batting avg. | .273 |
| .791 | OPS | .798 |
🚑 Braves vs. Dodgers injuries
📺 How to watch Braves vs. Dodgers
- Date: Friday, May 8
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles)
- TV: ESPN Unlimited
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Braves starter: Chris Sale (6-1, 2.14 ERA)
- Dodgers starter: Emmet Sheehan (2-1, 5.23 ERA)
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