Boston Red Sox Odds, Predictions 2023: Best World Series, Wins Total, Player & Team Prop Picks
Will an ultra-tumultuous offseason be just the beginning of the disappointment for Boston Red Sox fans? Find out as we look at our best team futures picks and Red Sox predictions for the 2023 season based on the top MLB odds.
Long gone are the days of the Red Sox serving as perennial World Series contenders. Following a last-place finish in the AL East in 2022, Boston is once again expected to serve as one of the division's weakest teams.
Despite its standing as a basement-dweller, the club still provides some interesting betting options in a variety of futures markets.
Here is our look at the best odds and our top 2023 Boston Red Sox predictions.
Check out our 2023 World Series Odds.
Red Sox odds 2023
|World Series champions||+6000||+6000||+6000||+7500 🔥||+6000|
|American League champions||+2800||+3000||+3000||+3500 🔥||+2500 ❄️|
|AL East champions||+1700 ❄️||+2000||+2000||+1800||+2000|
Red Sox wins total odds
|Over 78.5 (-115)||Over 78.5 (-112)||Over 77.5 (-110)||Over 77.5 (-110)||Over 78.5 (-105)|
|Under 78.5 (-105)||Under 78.5 (-108)||Under 77.5 (-110)||Under 77.5 (-110)||Under 78.5 (-115)|
Red Sox predictions: Wins total Over/Under
Under 78.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
I'm not exactly sure why this one is juiced to the Over on DraftKings, but we'll take advantage by placing our bet on the Under.
The Red Sox won 78 games last season, and they arguably are an even worse team in a stronger division heading into the 2023 campaign.
Xander Bogaerts joined Mookie Betts as another homegrown Red Sox star now playing in California. Bogaerts accrued 6.1 WAR last season, and following what was likely the best year of his career, Boston let him walk.
With Trevor Story undergoing modified Tommy John surgery and beginning the season on the 60-day injured list, Boston will turn to Enrique Hernandez or the newly acquired Adalberto Mondesi (who will likely start the season in the minors or on the IL as he recovers from ACL surgery) to serve as its everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future. The latter is a somewhat exciting option, but he's thus far been unable to stay healthy during his MLB career.
J.D. Martinez also made the move to the west coast, and despite his overall play declining in recent years, he was a steady presence in both the lineup and clubhouse and will surely be missed.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox will begin the season with Chris Sale in the rotation. How long will that last after the lefty missed the entire abbreviated 2020 season and pitched a combined 48 1/3 innings over the last two campaigns? Literally no one knows.
Meanwhile, Nathan Eovaldi signed with the Texas Rangers as a free agent and was essentially replaced with Corey Kluber. That may be a lateral move at best and a considerable downgrade at worst.
I'm not sure how one could reasonably argue that this team will win more games than it did in 2022, considering the improvements made by the rest of the division and the various changes to the club itself. FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to win 83 games this season. I want whatever its algorithm is having.
Red Sox predictions: Player prop
Masataka Yoshida to win AL Rookie of the Year (+1000 via Caesars)
My favorite Rookie of the Year bet is unsurprisingly also my favorite Red Sox player prop bet.
Masataka Yoshida provides the most exciting quality for a Boston franchise exiting a depressing offseason. He was the biggest offseason addition, and though that'll come with lofty expectations, it also brings with it some hope.
Yoshida also possesses perhaps the most valuable attribute for a rookie: experience. The 29-year-old is a seven-year veteran of Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball, and he joins a Red Sox club in desperate need of the offensive jolt he's capable of providing.
The outfielder is widely expected to slot in atop Boston's lineup - though he's currently projected to hit cleanup - and his impressive bat-to-ball and on-base skills could prove ultra-valuable with star third baseman Rafael Devers slated to hit behind him. Yoshida slashed .336/.449/.559 to go along with 21 homers for the Orix Buffaloes last season, so he has some pop to go along with the eye-popping average and OBP.
If Yoshida can adjust to MLB pitching quickly, these preseason odds will look like excellent value. The Red Sox may find themselves in the basement of the AL East, but they enter the campaign with two exciting rookies. Triston Casas is also an enticing option, but I prefer Yoshida in this market.
Yoshida is already as short as +600 to win the AL Rookie of the Year award via FanDuel and BetMGM, so head to Caesars to add him to your portfolio at this number before it's too late.
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Red Sox predictions: Team prop
Red Sox to finish 5th in AL East (+165 via DraftKings)
As previously mentioned, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to finish with 83 wins, while PECOTA projects them to finish with 80. Though the numbers vary slightly, the constant is that both models project the Baltimore Orioles to finish fifth. The Orioles didn't make a ton of offseason moves - they added Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to the rotation - but the biggest additions come via full campaigns from their star youngsters.
Adley Rutschman will start the season with the big-league club after an incredibly impressive first 113 games in 2022. Meanwhile, 2023 AL Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson is slated to bat third in an improved Orioles lineup, and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez could open the season in the rotation.
In the end, this bet will come down to the Red Sox and Orioles. Will the Orioles' youngsters make the leap to that next level and challenge the Tampa Bay Rays for third? Though most projection models don't expect such a development, I have a hard time believing this Baltimore team is worse than the one that won 83 games in 2022.
Meanwhile, despite the fact that Sale will begin the season healthy, I don't have much confidence in Boston's rotation logging enough innings to take pressure off the bullpen.
Between Sale (33 years old, 48 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, Kluber (36 years old, 244 innings in last two seasons), and James Paxton (34 years old, 1 1/3 innings in last two seasons), things could go sideways in a hurry. Add in the fact that projected No. 5 starter Garrett Whitlock has featured primarily as a reliever in his first two campaigns and is coming off an injury of his own (and may not even be healthy to begin the campaign), and the only remotely reliable arm in the rotation is Nick Pivetta, who owns a 5.02 ERA for his career.
The Red Sox are still a fine team - 75 to 78 wins in this AL East is nothing to turn your nose up at - and could potentially finish third in the AL Central or AL West. However, they play in the best division in baseball, and that spells doom for a team thin on starting pitching and relying on new faces to lead the offense.
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