Blue Jays vs. Mariners Player Props Tonight: MLB Picks & Best Bets for ALCS Game 4
My best Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props tonight for ALCS Game 4 target three Toronto hitters after their club's dominant win on Wednesday.
Those MLB picks include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to be patient at the plate and Addison Barger to hit a home run. The action gets started at 8:33 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle (FS1), with the Mariners a -120 betting favorite.
⚾ Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props tonight: ALCS Game 4
MLB player prop bets for Game 4; odds subject to change.
- Daulton Varsho Under 0.5 hits (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 walks (+126 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Addison Barger to hit a home run (+700 via Caesars) ⭐
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💰 Best player prop bets for Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4
Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Daulton Under 0.5 hits (+110) ⭐⭐⭐
Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho has struggled against Mariners starter Luis Castillo, registering only one hit in 12 at-bats (.083 average). He had two hits in Game 3, but had only one hit in the previous four games combined.
Varsho has a .428 wOBA in the postseason thus far, but a .346 xWOBA, indicating some good fortune in his overall quality of contact. Castillo has permitted a modest 13.3% hard-hit rate in two postseason appearances.
A $10 bet on Varsho’s Under yields a profit of $11.00 at DraftKings. The +110 odds have an implied probability of 47.62%.
Our best MLB player props today key up another Blue Jays batter that might struggle at the plate.
⬆️ Jorge Polanco Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI (-103) ⭐⭐⭐
Mariners infielder Jorge Polanco has one home run in eight career at-bats against Max Scherzer. He handled himself well against both fastballs and offspeed pitches during the regular season, which should allow Polanco to be in a position to continue having success against Toronto's inconsistent bullpen once Scherzer is out of the game.
Polanco was a completely different hitter at T-Mobile Park in the regular season, posting a .902 OPS with 15 home runs and 47 RBI, compared to a .740 OPS with 11 home runs and 31 RBI on the road.
A $10 wager on Polanco to hit the Over on this player prop would provide a profit of $9.71 at Caesars and has an implied probability of 50.74%.
Our Mike Spector likes Polanco as one of his best home run predictions today.
⬆️ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 walks (+126) ⭐⭐
Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has drawn three walks in his 18 career at-bats against Castillo. After a flawless four-hit performance in Game 3, I expect Seattle to be cautious with Guerrero whenever they can.
Castillo has walked six batters per nine innings in the postseason. Seattle’s bullpen, meanwhile, has handed out 3.51 free passes per nine innings in the playoffs.
A $10 winning wager on Guerrero to record at least one walk would provide a profit of $12.60. The implied probability of the +126 odds is 44.25%.
🚀 Best home run prediction for Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4
Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.
💣 Addison Barger to hit a home run (+700) ⭐
Blue Jays third baseman/outfielder Addison Barger crushed his first career postseason homer to cap off Toronto’s impressive Game 3 victory.
The young slugger has been held in check for the most part in the postseason, but he seems to really enjoy hitting at T-Mobile Park. He hit .462 with one homer, three RBI, and a 1.423 OPS in 13 at-bats during the regular season.
Barger ranked in the 91st percentile in hard-hit rate, 86th percentile in average exit velocity, and 93rd percentile in bat speed during the regular season.
Castillo had issues giving up loud contact in 2025, sitting in the 17th percentile in barrel percentage and 8th percentile in hard-hit rate.
A $10 winning bet on Barger to hit a home run would provide a profit of $70 at Caesars. The +700 odds carry an implied probability of 12.50%.
📊 Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds tonight
Latest MLB odds updated live in real time.
📈 Blue Jays vs. Mariners betting insights
Most bet-on Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props via BetMGM:
- Luis Castillo Under 15.5 pitcher outs (-185)
- Josh Naylor to hit a home run (+500)
- Eugenio Suarez to hit a home run (+425)
- George Springer to hit a home run (+400)
- Vladimir Guerrero to hit a home run (+400)
📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Mariners: Game 4
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 16
- First pitch: 10:03 p.m. ET
- Where: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
- TV: FS1
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