⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Saturday, May 9
Several veteran pitchers like Kyle Freeland and Aaron Nola toe the rubber today amid Saturday’s 15-game MLB slate, and their experience having faced the opposing batters numerous times gives great data to make our home run predictions today.
Though it’s not being played in Coors Field, I am attacking the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies in two ways with MLB home run picks from each team (TJ Rumfield and Trea Turner). I round out my four-pack of plays with safer wagers on sluggers who are atop the MLB leaders in home runs in Liam Hicks and Gunnar Henderson.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 9
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner to hit a home run (+570 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.43u | Turner has 40 at-bats worth of experience to draw upon against Freeland |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+390 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.98u | Henderson is a great value to hit his first homer in May belting eight in April |
| Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+725 via BetMGM) | 0.25u → 1.81u | Zack Littell has allowed multiple homers five times this year |
| TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+730 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.83u | Aaron Nola is allowing the worst xSLG of his career |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 6.05 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Trea Turner to hit a home run (+570)
No current Phillies player has faced Kyle Freeland more than Trea Turner, and the shortstop has made the most of those 40 at-bats. Against Freeland, he has slashed .300/.349/.575 with two of his 12 hits going for home runs.
Philadelphia started 8-1 under interim manager Don Mattingly, while averaging 5.0 runs per game and combining for 32 extra-base hits in that span. I expect its offensive success to continue against a Rockies pitching staff that recently allowed 12 home runs over a six-game losing streak, and eight-plus runs six times in a nine-game span.
📡 SBR Edge: The Citizens Bank Park bandbox
Not accounting for weather, Citizens Bank Park ranks as the second-most home run friendly ballpark today with a 15% boost, per BallPark Pal.
🔥 More home run picks today
Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+390)
In a small seven at-bat sample size, Gunnar Henderson has three hits off Aaron Civale, including one home run. While Henderson thrived in the friendly confines of Camden Yards with an OPS 112 points higher at home than on the road, he has shown versatility with four of his nine homers this year coming in road games.
One-third of Henderson’s hits in April were home runs, so I’m not discouraged by his low .129 batting average in May. And Civale, who started his career as an elite ground ball pitcher with a rate of 40.9% or better in each of his first four seasons, is currently on pace for the second-worst ground ball rate of his career (29.4%).
Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+725)
Zack Littell’s 7.24 ERA is the second-highest among all pitchers toeing the rubber today who have made a minimum of two starts. Littell has been absolutely torched by the long ball, and just snapped a four-start streak of multiple home runs allowed (he has allowed two-plus homers in five of seven starts).
Liam Hicks is next in line to take advantage of Hicks’ struggles, after he already surpassed his home run total over 119 games in his rookie season in just 29 games this year. Hicks has shown a rare combination of plate discipline (99th percentile in whiff and strikeout rate) and power (85th percentile in xSLG).
TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+730)
This final wager is a complete fade of Aaron Nola, whose .441 xSLG is on pace to be a career-worst. Nola isn’t blowing the ball by anyone anymore with an 11th percentile fastball velocity, and he also ranks in the 36th percentile or worse in barrel and ground ball rate.
TJ Rumfield has hit all five of his home runs off of right-handed pitchers. While four of his five home runs this season have been at Coors Field, he should provide power from the left side against Nola, who has allowed a .909 OPS in that split. And Rumfield has been on fire over a large sample size entering this series, with a .314/.397/.510 slash line over the previous 15 days.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
With two of my home run wagers, I'm fading two veteran pitchers from the same Rockies-Phillies game (Freeland and Nola) in the hopes that a slugfest breaks out. I've balanced this four-leg parlay with two of MLB's top home run hitters who are facing pitchers with poor ground ball metrics, and one who is one of the most home run-prone pitchers in the sport in Littell's case.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Trea Turner to hit a home run (+570)
- Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+390)
- Liam Hicks to hit a home run (+630)
- TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+680)
Best odds: +186834 via bet365 (0.1u -> 186.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 74-100 | +23.64 units ✅ | +20.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 50-84 | +17.03 units ✅ | +21.8% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
With my MLB home run picks today, I tried to strike the right balance between top-tier sluggers who have already hit several four-baggers and value plays against struggling opposing pitchers. While I typically prefer to shy away from backing two batters from the same game, I see the allure in the Rockies-Phillies matchup, and certainly wouldn't oppose anyone wagering on safer plays like Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper to go yard.
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