⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, May 29
We're target a couple of sweet-swinging lefties in my home run predictions today, one of whom gets to benefit from refreshing mountain air.
That's Rafeal Devers, and the combination of Coors Field and facing Michael Lorenzen is irresistible as I make my MLB home run picks.
But Riley Greene leads off the proceedings today while looking to become the latest to pounce on the White Sox and their shaky staff.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 29
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene home run (+540 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1u | Erick Fedde's cutter is doing little against lefties. |
| Rafael Devers home run (+330 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Power has shown up much more in May, putting a slugglish start behind him. |
| Julio Rodriguez home run (+520 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1.04u | Zac Gallen's strikeout ability continues to decline dramatically. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.70 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Riley Greene to hit a home run (+502)
Brandon Eisert will be the opener for the White Sox tonight. He's a southpaw, but the lefty Greene isn't struggling against same-sided pitching, as he actually boasts a slightly better OPS against lefties (.889) compared to righties (.812). Eisert throws his slider a whopping 60% of the time to left-handed batters, and Greene is putting up a 55.6% hard-hat rate against that pitch.
Then Erick Fedde will cover the bulk of the innings for Chicago. He leans on his sweeper against lefties, and Greene is slugging .667 against that offering.
📡 SBR Edge: Breaking everything that breaks
Breaking balls of any kind haven't been fooling Greene much this season, as he sports a .340 batting average against those pitches and a .625 expected slugging percentage, all according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+330)
As May winds down, Devers has put up an .897 OPS during the month, a significant improvement over his .537 in March and April.
He takes that momentum to the thin air of Coors Field tonight, which is unsurprisingly among the top 10 most homer-friendly ballparks this season, according to Statcast's Ballpark Factors. It's a rather cozy venue for a hitter who's clubbing the ball with authority, and boasts a hard-hit rate in the 86th percentile.
The quality thump when he does make contact and the Coors Field of it all is the ideal combination against Michael Lorenzen and his 7.21 ERA. His hard-hit rate allowed rests in just the 10th percentile, and Lorenzen's fastball is getting demolished to the tune of a .773 slugging percentage.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+520)
There was a time not too long ago when the Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen avoided hard contact through a simple yet proven method: Making sure the bat misses the ball.
But his K/9 now sits at just 6.6 after being at 8.2 last year, 9.5 in 2024, and as high as 10.9 earlier in his career. His OPS allowed has climbed from .729 last year to a career worst .771 as a result.
That presents an ideal opportunity for Julio Rodriguez. Much like Devers, he's put a slow start in the review while posting an .846 OPS in May, including eight homers. Rodriguez has achieved that in part through pulverizing sliders, Gallen's most-used pitch against righties while throwing it 38% of the time. The outfielder is slugging .545 against that offering.
π Best home run parlay picks today
There's some serious lefty power that links together two legs of our parlay between Greene and Devers. The latter also combines with Julio Rodriguez to give us two sluggers who have been sizzling during May.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Riley Greene home run (+540)
- Rafael Devers home run (+330)
- Julio Rodriguez home run (+520)
Best odds: +16962 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 3.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-109-1 | -10 units β | -18.1% β |
| Home run picks | 16-72-0 | -4.30 units β | -23.5% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-22 | -1.04 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
We're getting two sources of power at +520 odds or better today in Greene and Rodriguez. But Devers is the one to target for a slightly greater investment since he's taking his hacks at Coors Field against not only the sputtering Lorenzen, but overall a Rockies pitching staff with a league-worst 5.18 ERA.
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