Tigers vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (July 22)
The Tigers vs. Cubs win probability from the prediction market apps shows a near tossup, even with the two teams facing much different trajectories.
The clubs have split the first two games in this series, though Chicago ran away with last night's affair while winning 11-2. The Cubs enter tonight holding the first wild-card spot in the National League, and they're still chasing the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.
The first pitch flies at 8:10 p.m. ET, with the Cubs as the narrow 54% favorites.
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🏆 Who will win Tigers vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability
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There was a quick correction in this market amid nearly $131,500 in trading volume. The win probability was initially leaning heavily toward the Tigers at 61.2%, but they promptly became the underdogs, though now Chicago only holds a slight advantage at 54%. The probability has remained roughly at that mark since early Monday morning.
The Tigers could still be without Kerry Carpenter, who has been struggling but is still a key lefty bat for them. He missed last night's game, though his absence might not be felt quite as deeply against the Cubs' Colin Rea. His ERA has plummeted from 3.95 last season to 4.74 now, largely due to a loss of command and BB/9 that's also gone from 2.5 to 3.3.
Another key problem for Rea is simply too many balls in play, as his strikeout rate of 17.2% sits in the 13th percentile leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant.
For the Tigers, Keider Montero's profile is similar strikeout wise, but there's a key difference: He issues few walks and keeps the ball in the park. His HR/9 sits at just 0.8, and opposing batters are also hitting just .189 against Montero's four-seamer.
My prediction: Tigers win. Montero isn't fully stretched out and went 3 1/3 innings during his last outing. But he'll be passing the ball to the league's 10th-ranked bullpen with its 3.86 ERA.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Tigers vs. Cubs?
| Hitter | Home run probability |
|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 16% |
| Alex Bregman | 8% |
If anyone can take Montero deep, it's Pete Crow-Armstrong. The fast-rising Cubs outfielder has always shown plenty of pop, but his leap forward this season has truly come from improved plate discipline.
PCA's walk rate sat in the bottom 4% of MLB last year, but now it's risen from 4.5 then to 11.8 now. That's unsurprisingly a product of his chase rate falling from 41.7% to 34.9%. He's forcing pitchers to stay in the strike zone more, and readily capitalizing when they do en route to a .905 OPS (ninth in MLB).
My prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run. PCA sits sixth leaguewide with a 31.7% air pull rate. For more home run analysis, see the rest of my best home run predictions today.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Tigers vs. Cubs?
This market has been staying mostly steady at a 48% probability of a first-inning run, with the odd short jump up to 49%.
These are two of the league's best NRFI teams, with the Cubs sitting third overall and the Tigers just behind in fourth. However, each club is on the wrong side of its home/road NRFI split, with the Cubs much better on that front away from the windy ways of Wrigley Field (33-17), and Detroit helping to post a scoreless frame more at home (32-18).
Nonetheless, Montero should be able to do his part here through the hurler's quality control and power suppression. He's put up a zero in five of his last six outings. Rea's presence leads to some hesitancy, but he's far better at home. The righty has produced a 2.95 ERA at home versus a 6.45 on the road.
My prediction: No run in the first inning. Rea is also limiting batters to a .669 OPS at home, as opposed to an .877 on the road. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Satacini, and his best strikeout props today.
📊 Tigers vs. Cubs win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 48% | 61.2% | ↓13.2% |
| Cubs | 52% | 38.8% | ↑13.2% |
📺 How to watch Tigers vs. Cubs
- Date: Wednesday, July 22
- First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Tigers starter: Keider Montero (6-5, 3.22 ERA)
- Cubs starter: Colin Rea (7-6, 4.74 ERA)
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