Athletics vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, July 22

The Arizona Diamondbacks look to improve their standing in the NL Wild Card picture with a win in the rubber match of a three-game interleague series against the Athletics. My Athletics vs. Diamondbacks prediction backs a low-scoring pitcher’s duel between Gage Jump and Merrill Kelly. Because I like the Under to cash, I am high on Kelly’s strikeout potential, and add a value home run wager with the last of my MLB picks.

First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is set for 3:40 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the Diamondbacks are -120 betting favorites.

⚾ Athletics vs. Diamondbacks picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.70 units

🏆 Who will win Athletics vs. Diamondbacks?

The Athletics are an MLB-worst 5-20 since June 20, so I am backing the Diamondbacks against the injury-riddled AL squad.

Score prediction: Diamondbacks 5, Athletics 3

💰 Athletics vs. Diamondbacks prediction & best bet

Under 9.5 (-124)

The Athletics are 15 games under .500 since June 20, and a struggling offense that’s missing the services of Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Zack Gelof, and others is a big reason why. 

From June 20 to yesterday, the Athletics ranked 28th or worse in wRC+, slugging, on-base percentage, and ISO. 

Meanwhile, Arizona could be without offensive sparkplug Corbin Carroll once again as he deals with a hyperextended elbow. 

On the mound, Gage Jump has dominated in four starts spanning 24 innings away from Sutter Health Park. In that split, he has pitched to a 0.75 ERA and .173 OBA.

🔥 Best Athletics vs. Diamondbacks player prop bet

Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 strikeouts (-113)

The Athletics entered this series ranked 22nd in runs per game (3.9) over their previous 10 games, and were tied for the seventh-worst strikeout rate in the Majors (24.8%) dating back to June 20. Both of those trends suggest Merrill Kelly is in for a long outing, and he has completed at least six innings in eight of his last 13 starts.

After not topping four strikeouts over a nine-start stretch, Kelly has recorded six strikeouts in two of his last three appearances. His stuff has been fooling batters, as his 66 chases over his last 300 pitches are seventh-most among qualified starters.

Kelly’s 6.69 ERA and .313 OBA through seven home starts are troubling, but he should get right against a struggling Athletics lineup devoid of power.

💣 Athletics vs. Diamondbacks home run prediction

Gabriel Moreno to hit a home run (+800)

Gabriel Moreno has just six home runs on the season, but is a great value play to go deep this afternoon given how he has swung the bat of late.

Moreno is amid an 18-game on-base streak, during which he smacked three doubles, drew 13 walks, and drove in seven runs. Moreno’s .426 batting average to the non-pull side is the fourth-highest among those with a minimum of 75 plate appearances, and he was on pace for a second consecutive month with an OPS of at least .882.

Moreno hasn't homered in 26 games, which would make this wager much sweeter if it cashes. He certainly is trending the right direction to end that drought in the near future.

🚀 Athletics vs. Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Backing the Over on Kelly's strikeouts pairs nicely with the full-game Under, as a strong pitching performance from him would be the catalyst for a pitcher's duel. Naturally, I did not want to have a Moreno home run as part of a SGP that involved the Under, so I changed that third leg to him recording a hit. Moreno has hit safely in 14 of 16 games in June, with eight multi-hit games mixed in.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Athletics vs. Diamondbacks: MLB strategy

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While the Athletics have been the worst team in the Majors since June 20, I did not want to lay the juice with Arizona's -120 moneyline odds (carrying a 54.55% implied probability) without knowing if Corbin Carroll would be in the lineup. That's why I settled on a play on the Under, as Jump's road numbers ease my concerns over Kelly's poor home splits.

I'm admittedly reaching a bit with a home run wager on a player who has just six long balls this season. If you're not as confident as I am that Moreno can end his home run drought, I wouldn't put anyone off backing his Over of 1.5 total bases (+125 is the best price at FanDuel), as he has cashed this wager in eight of 16 games this month with two hits (regardless of if they were extra-base hits).

📊 Live Athletics vs. Diamondbacks odds

Despite the Diamondbacks receiving nearly two-thirds of the early moneyline wagers, the line has hardly budged at all at the top MLB betting sites. That could suggests sharp money is coming in on the Athletics to balance out the slight majority of wagers overall, or that it is not a heavily bet game at the moment to justify any significant odds moves.

Similarly, the total hasn't budged off the opening number at any of the top sports betting sites. FanDuel is the only one offering an O/U of 9.5 (juiced to -124 for the Under) while the rest of the market is at 9. The betting splits are near dead even, with 51% of the wagers backing the Under.

📈 Athletics vs. Diamondbacks betting trends

🚑 Athletics vs. Diamondbacks injuries

📺 How to watch Athletics vs. Diamondbacks

• Date: Wednesday, July 22
• First pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Chase Field (Phoenix)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Athletics starter: Gage Jump (3-5, 3.78 ERA)
• Diamondbacks starter: Merrill Kelly (7-8, 5.20 ERA)