Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire Prediction: MLS Picks & Best Bets (July 22)
My Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire prediction breaks down one of the most interesting games on tonight's slammed MLS schedule. How will Miami look without their superstar up front? Will Robert Lewandowski make his debut for Chicago? Questions that will be answered when play from Nu Stadium in Miami gets started at 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV).
But in the meantime, I'm going to do my best to answer them before the game plays out and hope for the best. Inter Miami is a +120 betting favorite on the three-way line, with Chicago lined at +160 and the Draw at +290.
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⚽ Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire predictions: Pick to win & player prop bets
See all of our experts' soccer picks.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire Draw | +300 via FanDuel | 0.25u -> 0.75u |
| Chicago Over 12.5 shots | +125 via bet365 | 1u -> 1.25u |
| Luis Suarez 4+ shots | +120 via bet365 | 0.5u -> 0.6u |
‼️ Will Messi play tonight?
No, Lionel Messi will not play tonight.
Following his late run in the World Cup, the Argentine superstar will be held out for at least tonight's game. and expectedly for Miami's next game as well.
He has no announced official timeline for his return.
⚽ Who will win Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire?
It's an incredibly tricky game coming out of the World Cup break. Inter Miami will be without Argentina's Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, both of whom are being held out following the country's deep run in the international tournament. That lowers Miami's ceiling for a game in which they would normally be a minus-money favorite on their home turf. Inter still has that home field advantage, and it still has plenty of attacking talent.
But Chicago brings plenty of volume and will have Robert Lewandowski in the lineup tonight, either as a starter or as a sub off the bench. It also has solid enough defensive numbers (although the underlying numbers are a bit concerning, the results are there).
Either squad could come out on top, but both are overpriced on the three-way line. The draw offers the best value.
Score prediction: Inter Miami 1, Chicago Fire 1
💵 My best bet: Chicago Over 12.5 shots (+125)
Chicago posts 14.86 shots per game, and Miami has allowed 14.6 over their last five games heading into the break. This isn't just a play on those numbers though.
The Fire will see this as a chance to pick up three points against a squad they normally would struggle against, they'll keep up the attacking pressure and have three volume shooters in Zinckernagel, Cuypers, and Bamba, and will have Lewandowski available in some capacity.
I project Chicago to finish with 13-15 shots, so I'll let the price do the work here.
🦶 Who will score in Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire?
Follow all of our expert soccer betting analysis for the 2026 World Cup.
Luis Suarez, F, Inter Miami (+155)
You'll notice that this bet isn't on my list of best bets above - there's a reason for that. There's just so much uncertainty tonight with Messi and De Paul on the sidelines.
But Suarez still rates out as one of Miami's best scoring candidates. He'll start up as the central striker and have the biggest box presence of anyone on the squad, and without Messi he'll carry an increased offensive workload. His goals/90 (0.88) is actually the highest on the team, but he's only played 6.8 90s across his seven starts (11 games). Miami won't have as much leeway with him tonight.
Best Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire goal-scorer pick: Luis Suarez (+155 via FanDuel)
🥅 Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire?
Neither of these squads is a stranger to scoring. Inter has scored an MLS-best 2.6 per game (2.26 xG/game) while Chicago is at a 1.93 per game (1.97 xG/game).
Inter isn't a stranger to giving up goals, either, allowing a very pedestrian 1.87 per game (1.67 xGA/game). Chicago, on the other hand, is sharp defensively, with 1.14 allowed per game on 1.31 xGA. It's just that most of the Fire's opponents aren't the league-leading offense of Inter.
However, the best sports betting sites are fully on board with BTTS - yes, and there's no value here. If anything the "no" is the better value side, but I'm not seeing enough there to make it a play (and my heart isn't behind it).
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (-334 via bet365)
📊 Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire odds
We're tracking the latest World Cup odds and favorites to win this year's tournament.
📺 How to watch Inter Miami vs. Chicago Fire
- Date: Wednesday, July 22
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Nu Stadium (Miami)
- TV: Apple TV
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