RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match
Have the wheels well and truly fallen off Maresca's Manchester City side, or is a trip to Germany exactly what they need to get back on track after a bump in the road? My RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City prediction is bypassing the Manchester City -188 moneyline and looking to a pair of volume props: one Over, and one Under.
Play from Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, Germany, gets started at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+), and my Champions League picks will have you set for when the action starts.
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Leipzig Under 13.5 shots | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| Manchester City Over 16.5 shots | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 3 at noon ET; Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 1 unit | Profit if all picks win: 0.92 units
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RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Leipzig Under 13.5 shots (-120 via bet365)
Leipzig's attack certainly deserves some respect, but it's performances on on the against top-tier clubs leave something to be desired. Despite chasing for large portions of both games, they mustered just 11 shots away at Real Madrid in Champions League MW3 (in a 4-1 loss), and 12 against Bayern Munich in a Bundesliga MW 6 loss (6-1).
Home advantage matters, but City will still dominate possession, with Anderson and Fernandez circulating the ball and helping to recycle attacks. Leipzig's best path into the game is via counters and transitional play, but it's hard to amass this type of volume through those outlets.
Play to: -130
🆚 Who will win RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City?
City should see north of 60% of the possession here, despite recent stumbles. While Leipzig might threaten through counters, they probably don't even have what it takes to make this one competitive. The talent gap is too great here.
Score prediction: Man City 3, Leipzig 0
More RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City expert picks
Manchester City Over 16.5 shots (+100 via bet365)
City have cleared this line in all three European games, putting up 20 shots at Porto, 27 against PSG, and 17 against AEK Athens. That PSG line needs a little asterisk, because City was chasing all game. That's why we're not pushing the Over 18.5 or Over 20.5 lines, despite the value. It wouldn't be for me, but if you wanted to put a quarter-unit on one of them in addition to this, particularly if you think Leipzig can keep this closer than I do, then it's entirely reasonable to do so.
The same recycles possession and midfield edges that should keep the ball out of reach of the German hosts attackers will lead to plenty of chances for City to get shots in. Doku's width should stretch Leipzi's shape on the back end, and Rayan Cherki will provide plenty of danger wherever he roams on the pitch. Clearances will be regularly collected and built into another attack.
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City key stats
All stats below are for the Champions League season unless otherwise noted.
| RB Leipzig | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Champions League league phase) | 1-0-2 | 2-0-1 |
| Home/Away Record (Champions League) | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WLLWWW | LWWLDL |
| Goals for | 3 | 9 |
| xG | 4.62 | 7.69 |
| Goals against | 8 | 5 |
| xGA | 7.52 | 3.27 |
| Average possession | 42.7% | 60.6% |
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City odds
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City; subject to change:
| Leipzig (4-3-3) | City (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Vandevoordt (GK) | Donnarumma (GK) |
| Baku (D) | Khusanov (D) |
| Orban (D) | Dias (D) |
| Lukeba (D) | Guehi (D) |
| Raum (D) | Gvardiol (D) |
| Banzuzi (M) | Anderson (M) |
| El Aynaoui (M) | Fernandez (M) |
| Baumgartner (M) | Foden (M) |
| Grouda (F) | Cherki (M) |
| Romulo (F) | Doku (M) |
| Nusa (F) | Haaland (F) |
How to watch RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City
- Date: Wednesday, Nov. 4
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig, Germany)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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