NFL Best Bets for Week 9: ATS Picks & Player Props This Week

My NFL best bets for Week 9 look to follow a similar format to Week 8 where I successfully cashed a three-leg moneyline parlay at plus-money odds, while surrounding that with two other ATS/OU wagers, and my top player props.

This sets up to be an interesting week where road teams are favored in eight of the 14 non-neutral site games. I’m compelled to make my top play on a big home underdog given how frequently they’ve cashed at +6 or higher this season.

NFL best bets for Week 9

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

Picks submitted: Nov. 2 at 2:10 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Total wagered: 5 units | Profit if all picks win: 6.35 units

Best NFL predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 9.

Chiefs/49ers/Seahawks ML parlay (-151 via BetMGM)

Kansas City should have too much offensively for a Jets team that ranks 32nd with a 42% red zone touchdown conversion rate. 

San Francisco faces a Raiders team that is playing on two different coasts in consecutive weeks. The 49ers have also won five consecutive games off a bye since 2022. 

And while Arizona is responsible for three of the NFL season's top seven upsets, they all came in domed stadiums. The Cardinals have lost four straight games at Lumen Field by double digits, and their 31-7 loss to Seattle in Week 2 dropped them to 1-10 in their last 11 division games. It was also their 15th straight loss at the time against a team that entered with a winning record.

Play to: -160

Dolphins +7.5 (-132 via bet365)

Jared Goff is coming off a game where he faced the highest blitz rate that any quarterback has faced since at least 2018 (89.7%). Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising if his rhythm is off in this contest, especially since Minnesota’s blitz-heavy scheme forced Detroit to run the ball on 11 of its final 13 non-kneel plays.

The Patriots also struggled with Florida's elements in an AFC East matchup last week, scoring only three points in the first half. Goff’s completion percentage is nearly seven percentage points worse in road games than at home this year.

Lastly, favorites of six-plus points are 10-24-3 ATS this season.

Play to: +7 (-110)

Buccaneers-Bears Under 47.5 (-118 via DraftKings)

By now we’re likely all familiar with the statistic that Tampa Bay became the first NFL team to win a game without a completed pass since the 1974 Bills. But the Buccaneers’ ability to run the football, coming off a franchise-record 322 net rushing yards last week, is the big takeaway, especially coming into a game where they face Ben Johnson’s high-powered offense.

Tampa Bay ranks in the top six in average yards before contact and average yards after first contact. The Buccaneers rank 12th in success rate on designed runs and fourth in EPA per zone rush. That's a great recipe for keeping Caleb Williams and Chicago’s top-3 total offense (entering last week) off the field.

Play to: Under 47 (-110)

Best NFL player props for Week 9

Trevor Lawrence Under 31.5 pass attempts (-128 via DraftKings)

Trevor Lawrence enters this week ranked sixth in EPA per play, and in the top three in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, passer rating, and passing touchdown rate. But with Baltimore trotting out third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano on a short week, Jacksonville’s top priority likely shifts to getting out of this week with Lawrence healthy.

The Jaguars already entered last week with the 23rd-highest pass rate on offense, given how many blowouts they’ve been a part of. He also averaged 33.5 dropbacks per game (20th among quarterbacks), and I expect even fewer in a short week against a team they should beat convincingly. Thus, Lawrence should stay Under this projected total for the sixth time in eight games.

Play to: Under 30.5 (-110)

Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown scorer (+335 via DraftKings)

This game in Madrid between the Bengals and Falcons is expected to be a shootout, as the 51.5-point O/U is tied for the highest on the Week 9 slate. Atlanta’s floor is much higher than last week’s shutout in poor weather conditions, especially since Cincinnati is coming off allowing a preposterous 36 points to a poor Titans offense.

Kyle Pitts is becoming more of a part of Atlanta’s passing game each week. He saw fewer than a 10% target share in each of his first three games. But he has had 15% or more in each of the last five, including 22% last week. The Bengals also entered Week 8 with the ninth-highest pass percentage.

Play to: +275