NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 9: ATS Predictions for Every Game

My NFL ATS picks went .500 overall in Week 8 but were a perfect 3-0 on my most confident plays and analysis write-ups. That included Detroit covering as a 3.5-point favorite as my only five-star play of the week while it handed Minnesota its first loss.

This week, my five-star ATS play is centered around what is one of the most fishy point spreads of the season, as oddsmakers are tipping their hand that a letdown could be ensuing for the Broncos off a big win against the Chiefs. Elsewhere, Jacksonville looks like arguably the most complete team in the AFC, and things couldn’t have broken any better for the Jaguars ahead of a Thursday night road matchup against the Ravens.

NFL picks against the spread: Week 9 ATS predictions

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 9 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Picks submitted: Nov. 2 at 10:45 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change. 

Best ATS pick for Week 9

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 9.

Panthers (+3) vs. Broncos ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denver leads the AFC West by a half-game after a humongous win over Kansas City, and faces a Carolina team that is the only division leader with a negative point differential (minus 15). Whether it’s because the Broncos are coming east to play an early 1 p.m. ET game or because the Panthers have a little extra rest after playing Thursday night in Week 8, this short line feels odd. 

Denver is fortunate to be sitting at 6-2, as it has been outgained by 221-plus yards twice (and is 1-1 in those games), while going 2-0 in games it has also been outgained by 105 and 187 yards. 

This comes with risk, as the Broncos have tied an NFL record with 15 straight regular-season wins decided by one score. But I’m hoping for an even narrower Broncos win or a double-digit Panthers win.

More Week 9 picks

Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Ravens ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacksonville’s plus-85 point differential is 27 points better than the next closest team. The Jaguars have only played two true road games through the first seven. But compared to splitting those games against the Broncos and Bengals, this one against a third-string emergency quarterback will feel much easier.

Trevor Lawrence is 14-3 with 44 total touchdowns in the last calendar year, making him one of five active quarterbacks with 14-plus wins and at least 44 touchdowns in a 17-game span. 

Baltimore’s offense is now in shambles with Joe Fagnano under center, with Zay Flowers not hauling in a single pass on five targets last week. Derrick Henry won’t find much running room against a defense that held Jonathan Taylor to 2.9 yards per carry.

Falcons (+3.5) vs. Bengals ⭐⭐⭐

I’m giving Atlanta a pass for one of the most embarrassing losses in recent memory, heading into this international game, as Tampa Bay ran for the second-most yards (324) by a team that finished without a completed pass in the last 90 years. 

We know Joe Burrow will complete passes, as he is the first quarterback in NFL history with a 70% completion percentage and four or more passing touchdowns in three straight games. But Atlanta can keep him off the field by force-feeding Bijan Robinson, and this is still a Falcons offense that was averaging 31 points per game with Michael Penix Jr. as quarterback prior to last week’s game played in a downpour.