MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Thursday, July 23

Teams around MLB are really taking this particular getaway day seriously while jetting off to various locales, leaving us with just five games to pick from for my home run predictions today.

I'll never stop diving for dingers, but it's best to lean on trusted sluggers with the difficulty ratcheted up. That's why I'm leading off with Riley Greene in my MLB home run picks.

The Detroit Tigers' masher boasts a .908 OPS against righties, and he's slugging .619 over the past week.

⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 23

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Home run pick: Riley Greene (+376)

Greene's hard-hit percentage has climbed from 45.5% last year to 50.6% now. That puts him among the top 25 leaguewide, and Greene's 86th percentile walk rate shows he possesses the plate discipline to get and hammer his pitch.

And the pitch he likes to do damage against the most is a sinker, which is the offering that tonight's Kansas City Royals starter Randy Dobnak throws 36% of the time to lefties. Greene is putting up a .426 batting average and .574 slugging percentage against sinkers, with a 67.6% hard-hit rate.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

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Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+246)

Junior Caminero will face off against Shane Bieber for much of his afternoon. The former ace might be turning a corner after allowing just two earned runs across as many outings, including silencing a potent lineup from the Chicago White Sox.

But the immense struggles with control still far outnumber the encouraging times for a pitcher making just his sixth start today post-injury. Bieber's BB/9 is a mountainous 4.6, and that lack of feel has translated to plenty of balls leaving the yard and an HR/9 of 2.7.

It's also led to a soaring hard-hit rate allowed of 53.2%, and featuring a fastball-cutter mix primarily against righties is not the approach you want against Caminero and his 100th percentile bat speed. He's slugging .775 against four-seamers and .652 when facing cutters.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

Home run pick: Ketel Marte (+390)

The regression monster will drag Michael McGreevy out to sea soon, and Ketel Marte can sail along pleasantly.

The Cardinals' lefty has been dancing through raindrops en route to a 2.92 ERA over 19 starts during his third season. However, his expected ERA is significantly higher at 5.35, no doubt due to a complete lack of fastball velocity and effectiveness that's resulted in a putrid 5.9 K/9.

The ball is in play often against him, and frequently it takes missile form. McGreevy is giving up a bottom 4% slugging too, and a 20th percentile barrel rate.

It all lines up well for Marte, whose pull percentage has increased from 47.3% last year to a career high 51.5% now.

• Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB.TV

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All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.