Twins vs. Guardians Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, July 23

The Cleveland Guardians slugged their way to victories in the first two games of this four-game series against the Minnesota Twins. My Twins vs. Guardians prediction expects Cleveland to complete the series win on the back of another dominant outing from Gavin Williams. I also make a value play with the last of my MLB picks on Rhys Hoskins going deep off Taj Bradley.

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited), and the Guardians are -140 betting favorites.

⚾ Twins vs. Guardians picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.04 units

🏆 Who will win Twins vs. Guardians?

Minnesota may be a profitable 11-8 in its last 19 road games (+3.9 units), but the way Cleveland has swung the bat this series makes me think it is the rightful favorite in today’s finale.

Score prediction: Guardians 5, Twins 3

💰 Twins vs. Guardians prediction & best bet

Guardians ML (-138)

The Guardians are 3-1 in Williams’ last four starts. That includes a 5-2 road win over Minnesota on July 9 when the righty turned in his seventh quality start of the season.

Minnesota just snapped a four-game losing streak when it was outscored 34-9. And while Cleveland entered this series averaging the fewest runs per game in the majors (3.92), its offense has provided plenty of pop through the first three games, with 24 runs, eight home runs, and 14 hits in 31 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

🔥 Best Twins vs. Guardians player prop bet

Gavin Williams Over 6.5 strikeouts (-115)

Williams has recorded 11 strikeouts in consecutive starts, and has four appearances with 11-plus strikeouts this season. Those 11 strikeouts are one shy of tying his career single-start high. 

When Williams struck out 11 Twins on July 9, he finished with a 31% called strike and whiff rate, and generated whiffs on 25% of swings (including on nine of his 19 sweepers). He was still averaging 99 mph on his four-seam fastball in the fifth inning.

Williams is also facing a Twins lineup that's struck out 21.4% of the time against right-handed pitching. He's held current Twins hitters to a .213/.268/.291 slash line in 108 combined at-bats, with 31 of those (28.7%) ending in strikeouts.

Williams is featured in our best NRFI bets today with Dustin Saracini.

💣 Twins vs. Guardians home run prediction

Rhys Hoskins to hit a home run (+575)

Rhys Hoskins logged his 14th career multi-home run game in Monday’s series opener, which brought his total to four homers in a six-game span. He's now three away from the 200-career homer plateau.

Hoskins is 2-for-5 in his career against Taj Bradley, and he's the only current Guardians hitter who's homered off him. Bradley is on pace for his fourth straight season with a 1.2 HR/9 rate, and his 31.7% fly ball rate is on pace to be a career-worst.

Bradley’s .498 expected slugging on his four-seam fastball, a pitch he throws 47.4% of the time, is much worse than his actual .431 slugging percentage against the pitch. It also gets hit hard 53.2% of the time.

🚀 Twins vs. Guardians same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely to increase Cleveland's chances of winning outright. I went a more conservative route with swapping Hoskins' home run wager for him to drive in a run. I didn't want to simply reduce the third leg of this SGP to Hoskins merely recording a base hit, given his low .181 batting average. The slugger's last four RBI have all come via a home run, but Hoskins can still fall into an RBI in a variety of other ways.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Twins vs. Guardians: MLB strategy

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The Twins have taken a 5-4 head-to-head season series lead with yesterday's win, and they're a solid 6-1 in Bradley's last seven starts. The righty even had a three-start winning streak snapped in his last outing. But I cannot oppose Cleveland at home given how it has looked to this point in the series, especially with Twins slugger Byron Buxton still not appearing locked in at the plate from a power perspective (zero extra-base hits) in just his fourth game back from injury. 

📊 Live Twins vs. Guardians odds

Even though the Twins are coming off their first victory of the series, the line still moved away from the road underdogs overnight, as much as 10 cents at the best MLB betting sites. That suggests much of the 58% of the early wagers placed on the Guardians' moneyline has been sharp action.

Currently, bet365 is alone among the best sports betting sites while offering an O/U of 8, as the rest of the market is at 7.5. DraftKings touched 8 at one point, and Caesars even reached as high as 8.5. But almost dead-even betting splits (52/48 in favor of the Over) led to a near-consensus total across the sportsbooks.

📈 Twins vs. Guardians betting trends

🚑 Twins vs. Guardians injuries

📺 How to watch Twins vs. Guardians

• Date: Thursday, July 23
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Progressive Field (Cleveland)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Twins starter: Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.85 ERA)
• Guardians starter: Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA)