Orioles vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, Sept. 16

When was the last time you saw a player on the road team hit a ninth-inning home run and the crowd give him a standing ovation? I doubt the home team appreciated that, and my Orioles vs. Mets prediction expects New York to bounce back today after Tuesday's embarrassing loss.

Chris Bassitt starts for the Orioles, while the Mets counter with Robert Stock. My MLB picks back the Mets as a -130 betting favorite, with first pitch from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y., set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

⚾ Orioles vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 3.41 units | Max profit: 4 units

🏆 Who will win Orioles vs. Mets?

I like the Mets to beat the Orioles by one run today in Queens. While the Orioles are three games back of the Guardians, who hold the final AL Wild Card spot, and the Mets are already eliminated from playoff contention, I would argue that New York will be more motivated to win today. I break down the Mets' motivation in my best bet below.

Score prediction: Mets 5, Orioles 4

💰 Orioles vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Mets ML (-130)

Not only did New York lose Tuesday, but it was embarrassed by a former Mets player.

Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso tied the game in the ninth inning with his 300th home run, and the fans continued cheering for him when he came out for a curtain call.

While the Mets have been mediocre overall this season, they don't typically go on long losing skids. They haven't even been swept in a series since the All-Star break (the last time they were swept was in a three-game set against the Red Sox from July 10-12).

Mets ML (-130) at FanDuel is the best line available among the top MLB betting sites.

🔥 Best Orioles vs. Mets player prop bet

Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+130)

If (and when) the Mets win today, Juan Soto will likely play an important role, given his advantage against Bassitt.

The Orioles right-hander is allowing a .321 batting average against left-handed hitters this season, while Soto is slashing .284/.423/.578 against righties.

The Mets outfielder ranks in the 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage and is coming off a two-hit performance Tuesday night. Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+130) at BetRivers is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.

💣 Orioles vs. Mets home run prediction

Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+320)

While I expect the Mets to win today, it's hard not to like Alonso at such an inflated price.

Not only has he homered in three of his last seven games, including Tuesday night against his former team, but he also ranks in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 92nd percentile in barrel rate.

Meanwhile, Stock has allowed an 8.1% barrel rate this season, which is slightly worse than league average for a pitcher. Alonso Over 0.5 home runs (+320) is the best line available among the top sports betting apps.

📊 Live Orioles vs. Mets odds

I'm only concerned with line movement at books that don't limit winning bettors. Circa opened at Mets -145, and money has since come in on the Orioles, driving the Mets line down to -130. That doesn't necessarily mean that Orioles ML is a better bet than Mets ML; it just means that the market thought the Orioles were undervalued when they opened at +125. Don't let the line movement discourage you.

🚑 Orioles vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Orioles vs. Mets

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 16
• First pitch: 7 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: ESPN
• Orioles starter: Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.88 ERA)
• Mets starter: Robert Stock (1-3, 5.93 ERA)