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College Football Upset Picks Week 3: 3 Underdogs to Win Outright

Our college football upset picks for Week 3 back Houston, North Texas, and Mississippi Stae to win outright as moneyline underdogs.

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: September 16, 2026 2:17 PM EDT • 4 minute read

Conner Weigman (1) hands off the ball to running back Dean Connors (44)as we make our best college football underdog prediction — Conner Weigman (1) hands off the ball to running back Dean Connors (44) as we make our best college football upset prediction. Photo by name-credit

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Plenty of chaos happened to teams inside the top 25 in Week 2, and now, I've got three college football upset picks to make leading into the Week 3 slate. It starts with an exciting Big 12 showdown between No. 22 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech on Friday night.

My Week 2 college football predictions finished 2-1, hauling in +1.35 units of profit. North Texas and Florida Atlantic pulled off upsets as home underdogs. Let's keep rolling into Week 3 and bet on a few of my favorite moneyline underdogs.

🏈 College football upset picks: Week 3

Check out all of our experts' college football picks for Week 2 and shop the latest college football odds before placing your bets.

Pick	Bet size
Houston moneyline (+250 via DraftKings)	0.50 units
North Texas moneyline (+125 via BetMGM)	1.00 units
Mississippi State moneyline (+155 via bet365)	0.70 units

Total wagered: 2.20 units | Max profit: +3.58 units

🚨 Best college football underdogs to bet: Week 3

🎯 Houston moneyline (+250 via DraftKings)

Houston has a chance to make a statement with a road win in Lubbock on Friday night. The Cougars are 2-0 under third-year head coach Willie Fritz, making strides each season while getting strong play from QB Connor Weigman.

Houston has shown a dominant rushing attack, racking up 7.2 YPC and 9 rushing touchdowns against Oregon State and Southern (FCS) to start the season. Defensively, the Cougars are smothering the run game, limiting their two opponents to a combined 0.4 YPC.

Texas Tech made its first College Football Playoff appearance last season and continues to have National Championship aspirations with QB Will Hammond under center. However, the Red Raiders' top-5 scoring defense lost star LB Jacob Rodriguez to the NFL Draft.

Houston and Texas Tech have both played Oregon State in the first two weeks. Houston's win was more impressive since the Red Raiders gave up over 400 passing yards to the Beavers.

Since the lines were released, Houston has shortened to a touchdown underdog at +7.5. We're still getting quite a bit of value on the Cougars' moneyline, and this isn't the same Texas Tech juggernaut from a year ago.

Let's bet on Houston to win outright at +250 odds on DraftKings.

📡 SBR Edge: Fading the Public

Only 18 percent of public bets are on Houston's moneyline against Texas Tech.

🎯 North Texas moneyline (+125 via BetMGM)

I'm running right back to North Texas as a moneyline underdog for a second consecutive week. The Mean Green dominated Dan Mullens' new-look UNLV offense with QB Jackson Arnold, holding the Rebels to 2.5 YPC and zero touchdowns.

Now, North Texas hits the road to take on 0-2 Texas State. The Bobcats got routed by No. 1 Texas 59-7 in Week 1, then lost 31-26 to UTSA on home turf. Somehow, oddsmakers still have the Mean Green valued as an underdog.

North Texas' offense has managed to put up over 360 yard in both games this season, including against a stout No. 4 Indiana defense. The Mean Green defense should limit Texas State's run-centric offense. The Bobcats will likely be behind schedule and forced to throw, where they've been pedestrian, failing to register 200 passing yards in either game this season.

North Texas has won its last 13 games against non-AP-ranked opponents. The Mean Green should be able to win comfortably on the road against Texas State on Saturday afternoon.

Go to BetMGM for the best line on North Texas' moneyline at +125 odds.

🎯 Mississippi State moneyline (+155 via bet365)

The Bulldogs are barking loud right now, coming off an impressive 38-13 win over Minnesota on the road. Mississippi State has scored 100 points in its first two games played, while its defense has been much improved, allowing only one touchdown.

QB Kamario Taylor has thrown for 581 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He's also averaging 7.1 YPC. In fact, all of the Bulldogs' backfield with double-digit carries has at least 5.8 YPC.

Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby is now in his third year at the program, trying to build something special. Now, he'll have his chance for another big road win against South Carolina on Saturday.

It's the first SEC matchup of the season for Mississippi State, which has lost 19 of its last 20 conference games. The Gamecocks are 2-0 under head coach Shane Beamer, with QB LaNorris Sellers aiming to take the next step into superstardom.

Mississippi State has played a stronger schedule so far, and they've been dominant on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The odds have gone from Mississippi State +7.5 to +4.0 since the opening lines were released.

Head to bet365 and place a wager on Mississippi State's moneyline at +155 odds.

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Written by:
Matt MacKay

Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.